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An introduction to probability distributions, focusing on discrete random variables. It explains the concept of a random variable, the difference between discrete and continuous random variables, and the concept of a probability distribution. The document also covers the binomial distribution, including how to calculate the mean and standard deviation using a TI-83/84 calculator. Examples are given throughout the document, including the probability distribution of the number of prior DWI sentences for jail inmates and the probability that Air America books too many passengers.
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Section 5.1 – Probability Distributions A random variable is a variable (typically represented by x) that has a numeric value, determined by chance, for each possible outcome of an experiment Examples: The number of students passing a certain class The average height of the students in a class The number of girls in a family of 5 children The sum on the faces of two rolled dice The number of defective parts in a sample of 20 The average daily temperature A word about randomness The word randomness suggests unpredictability. Randomness and uncertainty are vague concepts that deal with variation. A simple example of randomness involves a coin toss. The outcome of the toss is uncertain. Since the coin tossing experiment is unpredictable, the outcome is said to exhibit randomness. Even though individual flips of a coin are unpredictable, if we flip the coin a large number of times, a pattern will emerge. Roughly half of the flips will be heads and half will be tails. This long-run regularity of a random event is described with probability. Our discussions of randomness will be limited to phenomenon that in the short run are not exactly predictable but do exhibit long run regularity. A discrete random variable has either a finite or a countable number of values. This chapter deals with discrete random variables. A continuous random variable has infinitely many values, and those values can be associated with measurements on a continuous scale in such a way that there are no gaps or interruptions. A probability distribution is a graph, table, or formula that gives the probability for each possible value of the random variable. (Notice: similar to relative frequency tables, histograms) A probability histogram is a way to graph a probability distribution. The vertical scale shows probabilities instead of relative frequencies. Note that the area of these rectangles is the same as the probabilities.
Section 5.1 – Probability Distributions
Section 5.2 & 5.3 – Binomial Experiments
Remember that the variance is the square of the standard deviation: Variance = 2 2
Binomial Distributions and Simulations (Chapter 5) Example 2) – Booking tickets: Air America has a policy of booking as many as 15 persons on an airplane that can seat only 14. Past studies have revealed that only 85% of the booked passengers actually arrive for the flight. Find the probability that if Air America books 15 persons, not enough seats will be available. a) Describe the random variable and success attribute. Give the possible values of the random variable. Give the number of trials and the probability of success. b) Use the calculator to find the probability that if Air America books 15 persons, not enough seats will be available. c) Is it unusual to find that there are not enough sits available? Should overbooking be a concern for passengers? d) SIMULATION Now we are going to simulate this situation by repeating the experiment 20 times. Use MATH PRB 7:randBin(n,p) and press ENTER 20 times. Record results in a table, and then use your table to answer the question to the problem. e) Use class results and answer the question again. f) OPTIONAL (OYO) Here we have another simulation technique. Use the calculator to generate 50 numbers that come from a binomial distribution with n = 15 and p = 0. (We’ll clear List 1, generate the numbers and store them into List 1, we’ll sort the list and then explore the editor) STAT 4:ClrList L1 : MATH PRB 7:randBin(n,p,50) STO L1 : STAT 3:SortA(L1) Go to the editor, explore the list and count how many times we had 15 passengers showing up. Then determine the probability, and compare with the theoretical results from part (a). Comment on the law of large numbers.
Section 5.2 and 5.3 – how this material helps us in inferential statistics? 3) There are two conflicting hypotheses: The coin is fair Claim The coin is not fair Case 1: Heads turns up 17 times in 30 tosses We support the claim that the coin is NOT fair We don’t have enough evidence to support the claim that the coin is NOT fair Case 2: Heads turns up 27 times in 30 tosses We support the claim that the coin is NOT fair We don’t have enough evidence to support the claim that the coin is NOT fair