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General Learnings, Questions with Answers.
Typology: Exercises
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P(T 2 = pass) = 0. 660 To determine the value of the tests I deducted the price whichever test we perform first from the profits, since we would have paid that already. The case where we have already done test 1 is shown in Fig. 1. We can see that the expected profit is the same no matter if we do test 2 or not, so the value of information of test 2 given that we have already done test 1 is 0. As test 2 is not free, we would never do test 2 after test 1. The case where we have already done test 2 is shown in Fig. 2. The expected profit with test 2 only is 270, if we add test 1 it is 312.6., so the value of information of test 1 is 42.6. Unfortunately, test 1 in not free either but comes at a price of 50, so we would never do test 1 after test 2 either. Without any of the two tests, the expected profit is max {500 * 0. 7 โ 200 * 0 .3 = 290, 250 * 0 .8 + 100 * 0 .2 = 220 } = 290. With both tests (assuming they are both free) itโs 332.6, so the value of information of both tests is 42.6.
performing T1 and T2).
The utility of the chance node C = P(C2|~T2) * 125 + P(~C2|~T2) * (25) P(C2|~T2) = P(~T2|C2) * P(C2) / P(~T2) P(~T2) = P(~T2|C2) * P(C2) + P(~T2|~C2) * P(~C2) = 0.25 * 0.8 + 0.70 * 0. = 0. P(C1|~T1) = 0.25 * 0.8 / 0.34 = 0. The utility of the chance node is 63. This 63.2 value will then be propagated all the way to the top.
drop the ball. Some probabilities that will be used in the calculations below: P(:B) = 0:1, The probability that Orville's battery is low given that the observer saw Orville drop the ball, is 0.263.