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An overview of simple linear regression, focusing on the concepts of scatter diagram, correlation coefficient, and the calculation of intercept and slope. It also covers the assumptions of the model, including homoscedasticity and independence of errors. Students will learn how to test hypotheses on the slope of the regression line and calculate confidence intervals.
Typology: Lecture notes
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r =
√∑ (x−x)(y−y) (x−x)^2
(y−y)^2
− 1 ≤ r ≤ 1 The larger |r| is, the stronger is the linear relationship. r ≈ 0 indicates that there is no linear relationship between X and Y. r = 1 or - 1 implies that a perfect linear pattern exists between two variables. r > 0 tells the positive relationship and r < 0 means the negative one.
(x − x)^2 , SSY =
(y − y)^2 ,
(x−x)(y−y)
SSX n− 1
SSY n− 1
(x−x)(y−y) = (^) n^1 − 1 SCP (^) XY.
where X’ = XS−XX and Y’ = YS^ −YY (standardized variables).
SSE =
d^2 =
(y−̂ y)^2 = SSY − (SCP^ XY^ )
2 SSX where ̂ y = bo+b 1 X, where b 1 = SCP SS^ XYX , b 0 =-y− b 1 -x.
( N ote : -y=
y n ,^ -x=
x n )
∗∗ Danger of assuming Causality ** High statistical correlation does not imply causality. Even if the corre- lation between X and Y is extremely high, a unit increase in X doesn’t necessarily cause an increase in Y.
and
(y−y)^2 =
(̂y-y)^2 +
(y−̂y)^2 , we can derive
SSY = SSR + SSE. Then, since SSE = SSY − (SCP^ XY^ )
2 SSX , we get the sum of squares of regression, SSR = (SCP^ XY^ )
2 SSX. ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗∗