Population Growth and Demographic Changes in Select Texas Counties, 2000-2019, Lecture notes of Statistics

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Demographic Trends and Population Projectionsfor Texas and the North Texas Region^ Presented

to January 15, 2021

Texas isexperiencingsignificant andsubstantialgrowth.

4

Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2019 200020102019 PopulationPopulation^ Population

NumericPercentChangeChange 2010 ‐^20192010 ‐^2019

United^ States^ 281,421,906^ 308,745,

32,823,9523^ 19,481,418^ 6.3%

Texas^ 20,851,820^ 25,145,

28,995,881^ 3,849,790^ 15.3%

California^ 33,871,648^ 37,253,

39,512,223^ 2,257,704^ 6.1%

Florida^ 15,982,378^ 18,801,

21,477,737^ 2,673,173^ 14.2%

Georgia^ 8,186,453^ 9,687,

10,617,423^ 928,694^ 9.6%

North^ Carolina^ 8,049,313^ 9,535,

10,488,084^ 952,333^ 10.0%

Washington^ 5,894,121^ 6,724,

7,614,893^ 890,353^ 13.2%

Arizona^ 5,130,632^ 6,392,

7,278,717^ 886,429^ 13.9%

Colorado^ 5,029,196^ 5,029,

5,758,736^ 729,417^ 14.5%

Texas adds more population than any other state and at a fastrate. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 Vintage population estimates

Top^15 Metros^ in^ Numeric^ Growth,^2010 ‐^2019 Rank Name April^ 1,^2010 July^ 1,^2018 July^ 1,

NumericPercent 2019 Change^ Change 1 Dallas‐Fort^ Worth‐Arlington,^ TX^ 6,366,

7,455,756^ 7,573,136^ 1,206,599^ 19.

2 Houston‐The^ Woodlands‐Sugar^ Land,^ TX^ 5,920,

4,849,209^ 7,066,141^ 1,145,654^ 19.

3 Phoenix‐Mesa‐Chandler,^ AZ^ 4,193,

4,849,209^ 4,948,203^ 755,074^ 18.

4 Atlanta‐Sandy^ Springs‐Alpharetta,^ GA^ 5,286,

6,976,147^ 6,020,364^ 733,646^ 13.

5 Washington‐Arlington‐Alexandria,^ DC‐VA‐MD‐WV^ 5,649,

5,945,303^ 6,280,487^ 630,799^ 11.

6 Miami‐Fort^ Lauderdale‐Pompano^ Beach,^ FL^ 5,566,

6,143,837^ 6,166,488^ 600,214^ 10.

7 Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue,^ WA^ 3,439,

3,935,179^ 3,979,845^ 540,037^ 15.

8 Austin‐Round^ Rock‐Georgetown,^ TX^ 1,716,

2,165,497^ 2,227,083^ 510,760^ 29.

9 Orlando‐Kissimmee‐Sanford,^ FL^ 2,134,

2,574,838^ 2,608,147^ 473,748^ 22.

10 Riverside‐San^ Bernardino‐Ontario,^ CA^

4,224,948^ 4,612,542^ 4,650,631^ 425,^

11 Denver‐Aurora‐Lakewood,^ CO^

2,543,608^ 2,931,665^ 2,967,239^ 423,^

12 Tampa‐St.^ Petersburg‐Clearwater,^ FL^

2,783,485^ 3,154,649^ 3,194,831^ 411,^

13 San^ Antonio‐New^ Braunfels,^ TX^

2,142,520^ 2,512,379^ 2,550,960^ 408,^

14 San^ Francisco‐Oakland‐Berkeley,^ CA^

4,335,593^ 4,726,314^ 4,731,803^ 396,^

15 Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia,^ NC‐SC^

2,243,963^ 2,592,950^ 2,636,883^ 392,^

17.5^5

DFW leads nation in metro growth for the 4 Source:^ U.S.^ Census Bureau,^2019 Vintage^ Population^ Estimates

th^ year in a row.

Population^ Rank Geographic Area

• Estimate Change,^2018 to^2019 July 1, 2018 July 1,^2019 Number Percent 1 Phoenix, AZ 1,654,675 1,680,992 26,
  • • 2 San Antonio, TX 1,530,
    • 1,547,253 17,237 1.
      • 3 Austin, TX 962,
      • 978,908 16,439 1.
        • 4 Fort Worth, TX 893,
        • 909,585 16,369 1.
          • 5 Charlotte, NC 872,
          • 885,708 13,194 1.
            • 6 Frisco, TX 188,
            • 200,490 12,038 6.
              • 7 Seattle, WA 742,
              • 753,675 11,440 1.
                • 8 Denver, CO 716,
                • 727,211 10,946 1.
                  • 9 Henderson, NV 309, - 320,189 10,671 3. - 10 Mesa, AZ 507, - 518,012 10,067 2. - 11 Jacksonville, FL 902, - 911,507 9,070 1. - 12 Chico, CA 94, - 103,301 8,959 9. - 13 Atlanta, GA 498, - 506,811 8,628 1. - 14 Las Vegas, NV 643, - 651,319 8,091 1. - 15 Meridian, ID 106, - 114,161 7,697 7.2 - Texas cities among top 15 US cities with largest numeric increasebetween 2018 and 2019. with populations of 50,000 or more in Source: U.S. Census Bureau,^2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places

Population^ Rank Geographic Area

Estimate^ Change,^2018 to^2019 July 1, 2018 July^ 1,^2019 Number^ Percent 1 Leander, TX 55,924 62,608^ 6,684^ 12.0 2 Apex, NC 53,859 59,300^ 5,441^ 10.1 3 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301^ 8,959^ 9.5 4 Doral, FL 60,762 65,741^ 4,979^ 8.2 5 Bentonville, AR 51,103 54,909^ 3,806^ 7.4 6 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161^ 7,697^ 7.2 7 Georgetown, TX 74,275 79,604^ 5,329^ 7.2 8 Buckeye, AZ 74,339 79,620^ 5,281^ 7.1 9 New Braunfels, TX 84,495 90,209^ 5,714^ 6.8 10 Redmond, WA 67,436 71,929^ 4,493^ 6.7 11 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490^ 12,038^ 6.4 12 Fort Myers, FL 82,229 87,103^ 4,874^ 5.9 13 Lehi, UT 65,958 69,724^ 3,766^ 5.7 14 Castle Rock, CO 65,000 68,484^ 3,484^ 5.4 15 Milpitas, CA 80,208 84,196^ 3,988^ 5.

8 Source:^ U.S.^ Census Bureau,^2019 Vintage^ Population^ Estimates;^ Note:^ among^ places

Nearly a third of the 15 fastest-growing large cities and towns inthe country are in Texas.^ with^ populations^ of^ 50,000^ or^ more^ in^2018

10

Approximately 86% of the total Texas population is located incounties along and to the east of I-35. DallamOchiltreeShermanLipscombHansfordHutchinsonHartleyMooreRobertsHemphillCarsonOldhamGrayPotterWheelerDeaf SmithRandallDonleyCollingsworthArmstrongCastroParmerHallBriscoeChildressSwisherHardemanWilbargerLamb^ BaileyHaleFloydCottleFoardWichitaMotleyMontagueGraysonClayLamarRed RiverCookeFanninCochranKingKnoxBaylorArcherCrosbyHockleyBowieDickensLubbockDeltaDentonMorrisTitusJackWiseCollinHopkinsKentCassLynn^ TerryHuntYoungGarzaYoakumHaskellFranklinStonewallThrockmortonRockwallMarionRainsWoodUpshurDallasParkerGainesJonesFisherScurryBordenStephensTarrantHarrisonKaufmanVan ZandtPalo PintoDawsonShackelford^ GreggSmithHoodJohnsonEllisAndrewsNolanMartinMitchellEastlandTaylorPanolaHendersonErathRuskSomervellHowardCallahanNavarroCherokeeHillRunnelsComancheBosqueEl PasoShelbyCokeEctorMidlandAndersonWinklerLovingSterlingBrownColemanFreestoneHamiltonNacogdochesGlasscockSan AugustineLimestoneHudspethMcLennanWardCulbersonMillsSabineReagan^ Tom GreenCoryellHoustonUptonCraneAngelinaReevesLeonIrionConchoFallsLampasasSan SabaTrinityMcCullochRobertsonBellNewtonMadisonTylerPolkJasperSchleicherMenard^ PecosMilamWalkerCrockettJeff DavisBurnetBrazosLlano^ MasonWilliamsonSan JacintoGrimesBurlesonSuttonKimbleHardinMontgomeryTravisLeeGillespieLibertyOrangeTerrellTotal^ Estimated^ Population^ byBlancoBastropWallerPresidioHays^ KerrJeffersonEdwardsAustinHarrisKendallFayetteVal VerdeCaldwellBrewsterRealChambersComalBandera County,^2019 ColoradoGuadalupeFort BendGalvestonBexarGonzalesLavacaUvaldeMedinaWhartonKinneyBrazoriaWilsonDeWitt169 - 10,000JacksonKarnes^ MatagordaAtascosaFrioZavalaVictoriaMaverickGoliad10,001 - 100,000McMullenCalhounDimmitLive OakBeeLa SalleRefugioAransasSan Patricio100,001 - 500,000Jim WellsWebbNuecesDuvalKleberg5000,001 - 2,000,000Jim HoggBrooksZapataKenedy2,000,001 - 4,713,325StarrWillacyHidalgoCameron Source:^ U.S.^ Census^ Bureau,^2019 Population^ Estimates

11

Of Texas’ 254 counties, 104 lost population between 2010 and2019. Pecos Brewster^ -3,663 - 01 - 5,0005,001 - 25,00025,001 - 100,000100,001 - 620,149 Source:^ U.S.^ Census^ Bureau,^2019 Population^ Estimates

DallamOchiltreeShermanLipscombHansfordHutchinsonHartleyMooreRobertsHemphillCarsonOldhamGrayPotterWheelerDeaf SmithDonleyRandallCollingsworthArmstrongCastroBriscoeParmerHallChildressSwisherHardemanWilbargerHaleLamb^ FloydBaileyCottleFoardWichitaMotleyMontagueGraysonClayLamarRed RiverCookeArcherFanninHockleyCochranKingKnoxBaylorCrosbyBowieDickensLubbockDeltaDentonMorrisTitusJackWiseCollinHopkinsCassTerryYoakumKentLynn^ HuntYoungGarzaHaskellFranklinStonewallThrockmortonRockwallMarionRainsWoodUpshurDallasGainesParkerJonesFisherScurryBordenStephensHarrisonTarrantPalo PintoKaufmanVan ZandtDawsonShackelford^ GreggSmithHoodJohnsonEllisAndrewsMartinEastlandNolanTaylorMitchellPanolaHendersonErathSomervellRuskHowardCallahanNavarroCherokeeHillRunnelsComancheBosqueEl PasoShelbyCokeEctorMidlandAndersonWinklerLovingSterlingBrownColemanFreestoneHamiltonGlasscockNacogdochesSan AugustineMcLennanLimestoneHudspethWardCulbersonMillsSabineReagan^ Tom GreenCoryellHoustonUptonCraneAngelinaReevesLeonIrionConchoFallsLampasasTrinitySan SabaMcCullochBellRobertsonNewtonMadisonTylerPolkJasperSchleicherMenardMilamWalkerCrockettJeff DavisBurnetBrazosLlano^ MasonSan JacintoGrimesWilliamsonBurlesonSuttonKimbleHardinMontgomeryTravisLeeGillespieOrangeTerrellLibertyBlancoBastropWallerPresidioHays^ KerrJeffersonEdwardsAustinHarrisKendallFayetteVal VerdeCaldwellRealChambersBanderaComalColoradoGuadalupeFort BendGonzalesGalvestonBexarLavacaUvaldeMedinaWhartonKinneyBrazoriaWilsonDeWittJacksonKarnes^ MatagordaAtascosaFrioZavalaVictoriaMaverickGoliadMcMullenCalhounDimmitBeeLa SalleLive OakRefugioAransasSan PatricioJim WellsWebbNuecesDuvalKlebergJim HoggBrooksZapataKenedyStarrWillacyHidalgoCameron Estimated^ Numeric^ Change^ by^ County, 2010 ‐^2019

What is drivingpopulation growthin Texas?

14 About^ 1,006^ people^ per^ day^ added^ to^ our^ population.^ •^ About^483 persons^ per^ day^ from^ natural

International^ Migration increase18% (more births than deaths)^ Natural^ Increase • About 523 per day from net migration (17848%Domestic international and 345 domestic migrants per Migration day).34%

Texas added 367,215 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1,2019.^ Source:^ U.S.^ Census^ Bureau,^2018 Population^ Estimates.

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Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2018-2019U.S.^2019 PopulationPopulation Change^ County^ Rank^ Estimate^2018

Percent^ of^ ChangePercent^ of^ ChangePercent^ of^ Change^ from^ Natural^ from^ Domestic^ from^ International‐ 2019 Increase^ Migration^ Migration Harris 3 4,713,325 33,280 116.5%^ ‐91.5%^

Collin^4 1,034,730^ 30,

20.8%^ 65.6%^ 13.5%

Denton^5 887,^

28,466^ 19.8%^ 74.0%^ 5.8%Travis 6 1,273954 27,382^ 32.7%^ 51.0%^ 15.7% Williamson^9 590,^

24,088^ 15.3%^ 81.0%^ 3.3%

Fort^ Bend^10 811,^

23,607^ 24.4%^ 57.1%^ 18.5%Bexar 11 2,003,554 22,367^ 56.0%^ 33.5%^ 10.5% Tarrant^12 2,102,^

21,069^ 65.1%^ 12.1%^ 23.0%

Montgomery^16 607,^

17,621^ 18.3%^ 76.2%^ 5.3%

Comal^46 156,^

8,068^ 4.3%^ 94.2%^ 1.1%

Kaufman^49 136,^

7,875^ 9.4%^ 90.5%^ ‐0.1%

Bell^53 362,^

7,527^ 48.3%^ 49.8%^ 1.5%

Hays^54 230,^

7,485^ 19.9%^ 76.8%^ 2.8%

Hidalgo^74 868,^

6,409^ 147.6%^ ‐47.4%^ ‐0.3%

Dallas^77 2,635,^

6,166^ 345.9%^ ‐395.5%^ 149.9%

Note:^ Harris,^ Dallas,^ and^ Hidalgo^ Counties^ had^ negative^ net^ migration.Source:^ U.S.^ Census Bureau,^2019 Population^ Estimates

17

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2018-2019Population^2019 Population^ County100^ U.S.^ Rank^ Change^ Estimate^2018 ‐^2019

Percent^ ofPercent^ ofPercent^ ofPercent Population^ Population^ Population PopulationChange^ from^ Change^ from^ Change^ fromChange^ Natural^ Domestic^ International 2018 ‐ 2019 Increase^ Migration^ Migration Kaufman^2 136,154^ 7,^

6.1%^ 9.4%^ 90.5%^ ‐0.1%

Comal^4 156,209^ 8,^

5.4%^ 4.3%^ 94.2%^ 1.1%

Rockwall^6 104,915^ 4,^

4.3%^ 9.8%^ 88.6%^ 1.5%

Williamson^9 590,551^ 24,^

4.3%^ 15.3%^ 81.0%^ 3.3%

Kendall^14 47,431^ 1,^

4.0%^ 0.6%^ 97.9%^ 1.5%

Andrews^18 18,705^694

3.9%^ 14.0%^ 84.0%^ 2.0%

Chambers^20 43,837^ 1,^

3.8%^ 17.8%^ 80.1%^ 2.2%

Parker^25 142,878^ 4,^

3.5%^ 8.2%^ 90.9%^ 0.7%

Hays^28 230,191^ 7,^

3.4%^ 19.9%^ 76.8%^ 2.8%

Denton^32 887,207^ 28,^

3.3%^ 19.8%^ 74.0%^ 5.8%

Ellis^34 184,826^ 5,^

3.3%^ 16.0%^ 83.2%^ 0.7%

Waller^36 55,246^ 1,^

3.2%^ 20.0%^ 78.4%^ 1.4%

Gaines^37 21,492^672

3.2%^ 46.0%^ 43.9%^ 10.0%

Collin^49 1,034,730^ 30,^

3.0%^ 20.8%^ 65.6%^ 13.5%

*Among^ counties^ with^ populations^ of^ 10,000^ or^ more^ in^ 2018. Source:^ U.S.^ Census Bureau,^2019 Population^ Estimates

Estimated County-to-County Migration Flows, Dallas and TarrantCounties, 2014-

19 Tarrant^ CountyDallas County In‐Flows Net Migration Tarrant County 15,284 ‐3,865 Collin County 13,742 ‐3,522 Denton County 9,826 ‐8,981Asia 8,287Central America 7,263Harris County 4,589 ‐ (^108) Los Angeles County, CA 2,782 1,245Africa 2,774Bexar County 2,495 (^988) Kaufman County 2,263 ‐3,033Travis County 1,934 ‐1,071 Ellis County 1,903 ‐ (^850) Rockwall County 1,893 ‐ (^795) Cook County, IL 1,794 1,187Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey County to County Migration Flows, 2014 ‐ 2018 In‐Flows^ Net^ Migration Dallas County 19,149^ 3,865Asia 5,751 Denton County 5,265^ ‐2,167 Johnson County 3,887^346 Central America 3,653Harris County 3,577^963 Africa 2,693 Parker County 2,652^ ‐^953 Collin County 1,906^ ‐^707 Bexar County 1,659^222 Los Angeles County, CA 1,515^859 Travis County 1,352^ ‐^701 Lubbock County 1,333^ ‐^719 Wise County 1,270^ ‐^656

As Texas grows, itages andcontinues todiversify.