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Field Exam for Economic Demography, Exams of Economics

A field exam for the economic demography course at the university of california, berkeley. It covers topics such as economic influences on marriage behavior and fertility, population aging, health and socio-economic status, and behavioral economics. The exam consists of four questions, each with multiple parts, and students are expected to cite relevant literature and theories in their answers.

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2011/2012

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Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
August 18, 2010
Field Exam for Economic Demography
Please answer all parts of all four questions, which will be weighted equally in the total
grade. Cite the literature where appropriate. You have three hours.
1. Consider economic influences on marriage behavior and fertility.
a) Briefly explain the concept of the gains to marriage, originally developed by
Becker. Falling mortality in Third World countries led to rapid population growth
in recent decades. Drawing on Becker’s theory and class discussion, how might
this have affected the division of the gain to marriage between males and
females? (Think of the sex ratio in the marriage market.)
b) Briefly explain in words the role of the value of female time in the economic
theory of fertility; no equations or diagrams are necessary.
c) Now consider the effect on both marriage behavior and fertility of a reduction in
discrimination against women in the labor force, drawing on the relevant theories
you have sketched above.
2. A policy maker is worried about projected population aging in the US, and its fiscal
consequences. The policy maker consults experts. The first suggests that we raise the
quota for legal immigrants, in order to reduce the pace and extent of population aging.
The another argues that this would be a mistake, because increased immigration would
reduce wages and therefore reduce tax revenues rather than increase them. The first one
counters that wage rates are actually higher in local labor markets with higher proportions
of immigrants.
a) Could the economic consequences of population aging be avoided by switching
the responsibility for supporting the elderly from the public sector to the family?
Explain.
b) Does the empirical literature suggest that increased immigration would have a
substantial negative impact on wages of US native workers? Discuss this
literature and any issues of research design that you think are relevant.
c) Are there theoretical reasons to expect the impact of immigrant workers on native
wages to be large or small? Discuss, including consideration of the static effect
(holding capital constant), the dynamic impact (allowing capital to vary), and
demand side effects. You may use diagrams or equations if you choose, but they
are not required.
3. A strong positive association between health and socio-economic status has been
observed within many countries, but the direction of causality underlying this association
is disputed.
a) Discuss the evidence of this association that is presented in the study by Banks et
al that compares health outcomes in the US and UK.
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Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley August 18, 2010

Field Exam for Economic Demography

Please answer all parts of all four questions, which will be weighted equally in the total grade. Cite the literature where appropriate. You have three hours.

  1. Consider economic influences on marriage behavior and fertility. a) Briefly explain the concept of the gains to marriage, originally developed by Becker. Falling mortality in Third World countries led to rapid population growth in recent decades. Drawing on Becker’s theory and class discussion, how might this have affected the division of the gain to marriage between males and females? (Think of the sex ratio in the marriage market.) b) Briefly explain in words the role of the value of female time in the economic theory of fertility; no equations or diagrams are necessary. c) Now consider the effect on both marriage behavior and fertility of a reduction in discrimination against women in the labor force, drawing on the relevant theories you have sketched above.
  2. A policy maker is worried about projected population aging in the US, and its fiscal consequences. The policy maker consults experts. The first suggests that we raise the quota for legal immigrants, in order to reduce the pace and extent of population aging. The another argues that this would be a mistake, because increased immigration would reduce wages and therefore reduce tax revenues rather than increase them. The first one counters that wage rates are actually higher in local labor markets with higher proportions of immigrants. a) Could the economic consequences of population aging be avoided by switching the responsibility for supporting the elderly from the public sector to the family? Explain. b) Does the empirical literature suggest that increased immigration would have a substantial negative impact on wages of US native workers? Discuss this literature and any issues of research design that you think are relevant. c) Are there theoretical reasons to expect the impact of immigrant workers on native wages to be large or small? Discuss, including consideration of the static effect (holding capital constant), the dynamic impact (allowing capital to vary), and demand side effects. You may use diagrams or equations if you choose, but they are not required.
  3. A strong positive association between health and socio-economic status has been observed within many countries, but the direction of causality underlying this association is disputed. a) Discuss the evidence of this association that is presented in the study by Banks et al that compares health outcomes in the US and UK.

b) Almond presents evidence that conditions in utero affect health outcomes in later life. c) Smith argues, among other things, that the direction of causality over much of the life cycle goes from health to socio-economic outcomes. d) Are these three studies consistent or inconsistent with one another? Can you draw any general policy recommendations from them?

UCB Field Exam in Economic Demography, 18 August 2010 2

Table 1: Brass Standard Based on 2008 German Period Lifetable

x x Yx xx Yx

A Selection of Useful Formulas

Growth Rate: R = (1=T ) log(K(T )=K(0))

Exponential Growth: K(t + n) = K(t)eRt

Survival from hazards: lx+n = l(x)ehx^ n

Gompertz Model: h(x) = e x; lx = exp

( = )(e x^ 1)

Period Lifetable: (^) nqx =

(n)(nMx) 1 + (n (^) nax)(nMx)

Age SpeciÖc Death Rate:nMx = (^) nDx = (^) nKx

UCB Field Exam in Economic Demography, 18 August 2010 3

First Age Factor: 1 a 0 = 0:07 + 1:7( 1 M 0 ):

Second Age Factor: 4 a 1 = 1: 5

Survivorship: lx+n = lx(1 (^) nqx) = lx (^) ndx

Person-Years Lived: (^) nLx = (n)(lx+n) + (nax)(ndx)

Lifetable death rate: (^) nmx = (^) ndx=nLx

Expectation of Life: ex = Tx=lx

Brassís Logit System: lx =

1 + exp( 2 2 Yx)

Leslie Matrix Top Row: n

L 0

2 l 0

nFx +^ nFx+n

nLx+n nLx

ff ab

Leslie Matrix Subdiagonal: n

Lx+n nLx

Lotkaís Equation: 1 =

X

(1=2) (nFxnLx + (^) nFx+nnLx+n) (ff ab=l 0 )er(x+n)