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Impact of Adult Numeracy on Skills Distribution, Inequality, and Prosperity, Study Guides, Projects, Research of Entrepreneurship

The relationship between the distribution of numeracy skills among adults, social inequality, and economic prosperity using data from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The study examines the correlation between various measures of skills distribution and social inequality, as well as economic performance, focusing on the relationship between numeracy skills and social inequality and economic prosperity.

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EDU NAEC Paper Series n° 1.
How closely is the distribution of skills related to countries’ overall
level of social inequality and economic prosperity?
Dirk Van Damme
1
Skills distribution, social inequality and economic performance
Skills are critically important for the economic performance of countries. Greater proficiency in key
skills among workers drive productivity and participation in the labour force, thus leading to
increased growth and prosperity. In turn, higher economic output provides individuals, companies
and the state with the resources to improve the opportunities for acquiring and developing skills.
The aftermath of the economic crisis and rapidly rising levels of inequality (OECD, 2011) have raised
concerns about inclusiveness of growth, and placed greater emphasis on models of economic and
social development that combine growth with an equitable sharing of its benefits across the
population. The concept of inclusive growth also suggests that less unequal societies are better able
to mobilise skills and other social resources to foster economic growth. Inequalities in skills can
result in overall social inequality, as less-skilled people find themselves deprived of many of the
resources that secure participation in the labour market, in democratic institutions and in civic life.
Until recently, proficiency in skills was measured by educational attainment or years spent in
education. The Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (OECD, 2013) now provides direct measures for the
proficiency of 16-65 year-olds in literacy, numeracy and problem-solving. These data allow for an
examination of the relationship between skills, economic performance and social inequality in
greater detail and with greater validity. This paper concentrates on numeracy skills.
2
Analyses of the relationship between skills and economic and social outcomes are mostly limited to
comparing average skills proficiency among countries. This paper also focuses on the relationship
between the distribution of numeracy skills and social inequality, on the one hand, and economic
performance on the other. It is a two-way relationship. Greater income inequality is likely to lead to
a wider spectrum of proficiency due to the fact that there is a greater variation in the resources that
individuals and families can spend on education, and that more income inequality could motivate
people to invest in upgrading their skills. At the same time, a wider range of proficiency is likely to
lead to greater income inequality if workers are paid wages that reflect their productivity, which, in
turn, is partially determined by their skills proficiency. At the aggregate level, higher national income
is likely to lead to higher average proficiency given that the resources that society (the state,
individuals, families and enterprises) can devote to education and training are greater. At the same
time, higher average proficiency is likely to lead to higher productivity.
The policy relevance of these relationships is clear: it is important for countries to know in which
segment of the skills distribution they should invest in order to achieve greater economic output or a
more equal distribution of income. Should countries invest in skills policies that favour the highly
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EDU NAEC Paper Series n° 1.

How closely is the distribution of skills related to countries’ overall

level of social inequality and economic prosperity?

Dirk Van Damme

1

Skills distribution, social inequality and economic performance

Skills are critically important for the economic performance of countries. Greater proficiency in key

skills among workers drive productivity and participation in the labour force, thus leading to

increased growth and prosperity. In turn, higher economic output provides individuals, companies

and the state with the resources to improve the opportunities for acquiring and developing skills.

The aftermath of the economic crisis and rapidly rising levels of inequality (OECD, 2011) have raised

concerns about inclusiveness of growth, and placed greater emphasis on models of economic and

social development that combine growth with an equitable sharing of its benefits across the

population. The concept of inclusive growth also suggests that less unequal societies are better able

to mobilise skills and other social resources to foster economic growth. Inequalities in skills can

result in overall social inequality, as less-skilled people find themselves deprived of many of the

resources that secure participation in the labour market, in democratic institutions and in civic life.

Until recently, proficiency in skills was measured by educational attainment or years spent in

education. The Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (OECD, 2013) now provides direct measures for the

proficiency of 16-65 year-olds in literacy, numeracy and problem-solving. These data allow for an

examination of the relationship between skills, economic performance and social inequality in

greater detail and with greater validity. This paper concentrates on numeracy skills.

2

Analyses of the relationship between skills and economic and social outcomes are mostly limited to

comparing average skills proficiency among countries. This paper also focuses on the relationship

between the distribution of numeracy skills and social inequality, on the one hand, and economic

performance on the other. It is a two-way relationship. Greater income inequality is likely to lead to

a wider spectrum of proficiency due to the fact that there is a greater variation in the resources that

individuals and families can spend on education, and that more income inequality could motivate

people to invest in upgrading their skills. At the same time, a wider range of proficiency is likely to

lead to greater income inequality if workers are paid wages that reflect their productivity, which, in

turn, is partially determined by their skills proficiency. At the aggregate level, higher national income

is likely to lead to higher average proficiency given that the resources that society (the state,

individuals, families and enterprises) can devote to education and training are greater. At the same

time, higher average proficiency is likely to lead to higher productivity.

The policy relevance of these relationships is clear: it is important for countries to know in which

segment of the skills distribution they should invest in order to achieve greater economic output or a

more equal distribution of income. Should countries invest in skills policies that favour the highly

skilled, at the risk of increasing the gap between low- and high-skilled workers? Or should they try to

keep the skills gap as small as possible? It is also important to have a good understanding of the

trade-offs between economic performance and social equality as they relate to skills policies.

This paper explores the country-level relationships between various measures of the distribution of

skills among adults using data from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), and overall social inequality, as

measured by the Gini coefficient

3

on the one hand and overall economic output as measured by

GDP per capita

4

on the other. The analysis does not provide evidence of the causal nature of the

relationships.

Table 1 provides an overview of the country-level correlations between various measures of the

distribution of numeracy skills with both the Gini coefficient of income inequality and GDP per

capita. The most powerful correlations (≥ 40) are highlighted.

Table 1. Overview of country-level correlations between various measures of numeracy

proficiency and the Gini coefficient and GDP per capita

Gini GDP per capita

Mean score - .63.

Percentage of adults scoring at or below Level 2 .59 -.

Percentage of adults scoring at Level 4 or 5 - .54.

Score-point difference 90

th

minus 10

th

percentile .35.

Score- point difference 75

th

minus 25

th

percentile .40.

Score-point difference 16- 24 year-olds minus 55-64 year-olds - .01 -.

Score-point difference between adults with tertiary and lower than

upper secondary education

Score-point difference 75

th

minus 25

th

percentile among adults with

lower than upper secondary education

Score-point difference 75

th

minus 25

th

percentile among adults with

upper secondary education

Score-point difference 75

th

minus 25

th

percentile among adults with

tertiary-type A education

Score-point difference between adults with at least one parent who

attained tertiary education and adults with neither parent who

attained upper secondary education

Main findings and policy relevance

The main findings of the following exploratory analysis include:

Countries with higher mean proficiency in numeracy, fewer low-skilled adults and more

high-skilled adults tend to enjoy more social equality. A greater share of highly skilled

adults is also positively, albeit weakly, related to economic performance.

Skills policies that improve the mean numeracy performance among adults are associated with

higher levels of social equality. Reducing the number of low-skilled workers and increasing the

number of high-skilled adults is related to social equality and, to a small extent, economic

performance.

Countries with higher mean proficiency in numeracy, fewer low-skilled

adults and more high-skilled adults tend to enjoy more social equality. A

greater share of highly skilled adults is also positively, albeit weakly,

related to economic performance.

Countries with greater social equality tend to have more numerate adult populations. Austria, the

Czech Republic, Flanders (Belgium), the Nordic countries and the Slovak Republic have relatively high

mean numeracy scores and also have relatively modest income inequality. By contrast, Ireland, Italy,

Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States have relatively low mean numeracy scores

and have greater income inequality. The correlation (-.63) between income inequality and the mean

score in numeracy is strong. The correlation remains strong across age groups, and weakens only

slightly, to -.49, among 55-65 year-olds.

Figure 1. Relationship between the mean numeracy score and the Gini coefficient

In contrast, mean numeracy scores have only a weak relationship (.11) with countries’ overall

economic performance, as measured by GDP per capita. Among 35-44 year-olds the country-level

correlation between the mean numeracy score and GDP per capita rises to .22, which is still weak.

Countries with greater income inequality tend to have more low-skilled adults and fewer high-skilled

adults. The correlation between income inequality and the proportion of low-skilled adults is .59,

while that between income inequality and the proportion of high-skilled adults is -.54. Countries that

enjoy greater social equality, such as the Nordic countries and Flanders (Belgium) generally have

fewer low-skilled and more high-skilled adults.

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

Gini coefficient

Mean numeracy score

Figure 2. Relationship between the percentage of adults with low proficiency in numeracy and the

Gini coefficient

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

Gini coefficient

Percentage of adults scoring below Level 2 on the numeracy scale

but only above a certain threshold level of skills inequality. Among countries with a difference lower

than 70 score points between the 75

th

and 25

th

percentiles on the numeracy scale there is no

relation between the skills gap and social equality. As Figure 4 illustrates, next to the United States,

the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada share a wide skills distribution and a high Gini coefficient.

The Nordic countries and Flanders (Belgium) have average to high inequality in numeracy skills but

do not have a high Gini coefficient.

At the same time, GDP per capita is more strongly related (.59) to the score-point difference

between the 75

th

and 25

th

percentiles (.61 with the score-point difference between the 90

th

and 10

th

percentiles). The former relationship is important. Australia, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom

and the United States show both wide gaps in skills proficiency among adults and relatively high GDP

per capita. By contrast, Flanders (Belgium), Ireland, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries

achieve similar levels of economic performance with more evenly distributed skills proficiency

among adults.

Figure 4. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency among adults and the Gini

coefficient

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

Gini coefficient

Score-point difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles on the numeracy scale

Figure 5. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency and GDP per capita

Gaps in skills proficiency between age groups are unrelated to overall

social inequality.

The skills distribution by age has no relationship at all (-.01) with social inequality. A smaller gap in

proficiency between the youngest and the oldest adults does not seem to have any impact on

overall social equality.

There is a weak negative relationship (-.36) between skills distribution by age and GDP per capita. A

smaller gap in numeracy proficiency between the youngest and the oldest adults seems to be

positively related to economic prosperity, as seen in Norway and the United States, probably

because the older generations with better skills have contributed in the past to greater economic

output. Countries, such as Poland, with wider skills gaps between younger and older adults are

catching up in terms of economic growth. There is no intrinsic economic benefit from having a small

skills gap between the age groups.

Australia

Austria Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders UK

GDP per capita

Score-point difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles on the numeracy scale

Figure 7. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency related to educational

attainment and the Gini coefficient

The relationship to economic performance is different. As already noted, the mean numeracy score

at the country level is practically unrelated to economic performance (.11), and the correlation

remains weak among adults at each educational level (-.14 for adults with less than upper secondary

education, .03 for adults with upper secondary education, and .14 for adults with tertiary

education). However, the difference in numeracy proficiency between tertiary-educated adults and

those without an upper secondary education has a fairly strong, positive correlation (.43) to

economic performance as measured by GDP per capita. National income seems to be somewhat

associated with a distribution of skills proficiency in which adults with higher educational attainment

acquire greater numeracy skills.

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

Gini coefficient

Score-point difference in numeracy proficiency between tertiary-educated adults and

those without an upper secondary education

Figure 8. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency related to educational

attainment and GDP per capita

A wider dispersion of skills among low-educated adults is unrelated to

social inequality, but among mid-educated adults it is somewhat positively

associated with economic prosperity.

In the next section we will look at the skills distribution within each of the three educational

attainment levels. One might object that, as has been demonstrated by the OECD Adult Skills Survey

(PIAAC), the educational attainment levels do not represent the same point on the skills scale and

include different parts of the adult population in each country. But educational attainment levels

signify important institutional divisions in the labour market and the wider society, which are

supposed to represent comparable realities across countries. It is interesting to examine whether

the width of the skills distribution within each level is related to either social inequality or economic

performance. A hypothesis might for example be that social arrangements which provide

opportunities for low-educated adults to upgrade their skills, leading to a wider disparity is skills

among the low-educated, work against social equality. Or that social inequality is linked to the

prevalence of higher-educated adults losing their skills. For each educational attainment level we

will look at the score point difference between the 75

th

and 25

th

percentiles to estimate the width of

the distribution.

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders UK

GDP per capita

Score-point difference in numeracy proficiency between tertiary-educated adults and

those without upper secondary education

Figure 10. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency among mid-educated

adults and GDP per capita

The relationship between overall inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, and the distribution

of numeracy skills among mid-educated adults is much weaker (.30). Better opportunities for mid-

educated adults to improve their skills seem to be associated with higher levels of overall inequality,

but the relationship is weak.

Distribution of skills proficiency among adults with a university-level education

A wider distribution of numeracy skills among tertiary-educated adults is positively, albeit weakly,

related to inequality (.36) and equally weakly related to economic prosperity (.32). Anglo-Saxon

countries, in particular, show relatively wide dispersions of numeracy skills among their tertiary-

educated adults.

Australia

Austria Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders UK

GDP per capita

Score-point difference in numeracy proficiency between the 75th and 25th

percentiles among adults with upper secondary education

Figure 11. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency among highly educated

adults and the Gini coefficient

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

Gini coefficient

Score-point difference in numeracy proficiency between the 75th and 25th percentiles

among adults with a tertiary education

Figure 13. Relationship between the distribution of numeracy proficiency related to parents'

educational attainment and the Gini coefficient

Notes

1

Head of the Innovation and Measuring Progress division, Directorate for Education and Skills, OECD.

2

Numeracy skills generally are more predictive of social and economic outcomes than literacy skills. Similar,

but generally weaker, relationships can be found with literacy skills.

3

A higher Gini coefficient means more income inequality.

4

In constant 2005 prices and PPP (US$)

References

OECD (2011), Divided we stand. Why inequality keeps rising (Paris: OECD Publishing).

OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013. First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills (Paris: OECD

Publishing).

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

Gini coefficient

Score-point difference in numeracy proficiency between adults with at least one

tertiary-educated parent and those with parents who have less than upper secondary