Political, Social, and Economic Development of Jordan and Iraq: A Comparative Analysis, Exams of Political Science

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Jordan and Iraq: Political, Social, and Economic Development Briana McGorty Political Science 416 Dr. Shawn Schulenberg 12 October 2010

McGorty i Outline Thesis: Both Jordan and Iraq have had histories of some type of authoritarian rule, but are making steps towards democracy in the present day, leaving great hope for a democratic future in both countries, even through the challenges faced in the three sections of development through ethnic and religious divisions in Iraq and a dependent economy in Jordan. I. Jordan has struggled with a lack of resources and a dependent economy since its establishment, which influences all levels of development. II. Jordanian social development has seen numerous changes in recent history, some good and some bad. A. Groups such as women as well as the Muslim brotherhood have seen more freedoms. B. The pressures to “keep up with the Jones’” have led to the idea of marriage to become an economic nightmare for Jordanian people. III. Economical development in Jordan is showing great hope for the future, even with its dependent past. A. Jordan has been heavily dependent on external aid for its economic survival. B. Economic distress came about in 1989, leading to riots. C. Hrayshat believes that there is hope for Jordan’s economic future with their great natural resource of oil shale.

McGorty iii B. More recent Coalition policies have led to more liberalized markets and prices. C. Rebuilding and investments will play a significant role in Iraq’s future. VIII. Political development has turned around completely since the U. S. invasion in

A. Iraq was ruled by a monarchy until 1958 when there were a series of military coups leading to the rule of Saddam Hussein. B. Iraqi regimes were never able to achieve political unity. C. The U.S. invasion in 2003 has led to pushes for democracy in Iraq, such as elections. D. Although Iraq’s freedom house scores have varied they still remain not free. IX. Jordan and Iraq have both made steps in direction of more development in recent years. A. Iraq has set up with a provisional government followed by elections. B. Jordan has seen significantly more freedoms come about, leading them to be the more developed of the two countries.

Jordan and Iraq: Political, Social, and Economic Development Both Jordan and Iraq have had histories of some type of authoritarian rule, but are making steps towards democracy in the present day, although challenges are faced in all three sections of development by Iraq with its ethnic and religious divisions and Jordan with its dependent economy. According to the World bank, Jordan is experiencing a 3% increase in their GDP per year while Iraq is experiencing a 4% increase in GDP per year. This is just one of many signs that development is moving in the right direction in these two countries, and that there is hope for the future. Jordan Ever since Jordan’s birth in 1922, the lack of natural resources and indigenous industrial capacity have placed it at the mercy of external revenues of one sort or another. Early on, King Hussein’s attempts to base legitimacy on the distribution of largesse stunted Jordan’s development within civil society, and combined with the forced absence of political life, created a false sense of stability and legitimacy (Roberts 120). In recent history, Jordan is still heavily dependent on one resource, and that is of the aid of oil-dependent countries. This dependency has caused troubles for Jordan in all aspects of development because when the oil market fluctuates, so does the aid that Jordan depends upon. Today Jordan has a population of almost six million people with 92 percent identifying as Sunni Muslim according to the World Bank. Jordanian Social Development Social development as well as social participation has changed quite a bit over the past few decades. The great changes took place beginning in 1992, with the Jordanian government making steps towards democracy. Emile Sahliyeh discusses in comparison to the surrounding

Overall, Jordan’s social development has made great strides in the right direction. Previously repressed minority groups, such as women and the Muslim brotherhood have gained significantly more freedoms both socially and politically. In addition, although the idea of “keeping up with the Jones” is thought of in a negative respect, it could be a sign of social development. This could be viewed as a desire for a higher standard of living as well as a willingness to work for that standard of living. Jordan’s social development is moving strongly in the right direction. Economic Development in Jordan Since its birth in 1922, Jordan’s lack of natural resources and indigenous industrial capacity have placed it at the mercy of external revenues of one sort or another. With this being said, it is easy to see that throughout its history, Jordan has been very dependent on other countries for economic stability. The recent downturn in the international economy has drastically effected Jordan because of the decreasing flow of oil-state support (Roberts 119). This type of disaster was also seen in the 1980s during the oil bust. This had caused a collapse in the Jordan economy because the oil rich countries had to cut back their aid and many workers that had moved into Jordan returned to the Gulf states (Lowrance 85). This type of nearly full reliance on other countries is not good for economic development because one bad world event can bring the entire economy crashing down. This tendency for economic instability led to a great amount of economic distress for the people of Jordan. The outcome of this distress was the riots of 1989. The people had simply become tired of the government’s inattentiveness to their needs and with the instability of the economy and were calling out for a change (Roberts 124). According to E. S. Hrayshat, an economic change is possible the will secure Jordan’s economy and make it completely independent.

Oil shale is the major indigenous fossil fuel in Jordan, and according to the Jordanian National Resource Authority, the predicted reserves should be sufficient to satisfy Jordan’s energy requirements for several centuries. In addition, oil shale is the only indigenous energy resource, according to Hrayshat, that could reduce Jordan’s dependency on imported crude oil, and would in turn ease the pressure on the national economy. The hope is that Jordan could eventually become self-sufficient in oil and also become a net exporter of oil shale, providing oil security into the next century (Hrayshat 1916). Recently, the dramatic rise of the global crude oil prices has strengthened the Jordanian government interest in oil shale (1917). This recent interest gives great potential to economic development in Jordan. According to the world bank, Jordan is currently experiencing a 3% increase in their GDP per year. This number is up significantly from the 1989 percentage of -13%, but is also greatly lower than the 19% that was seen in 1992. Much of the same is seen with GDP per capita growth rates, with a current 0%, 13% in 1992, and -17% in 1989. These fluctuations coincide with the major events in Jordan. In 1989, Jordan saw the riots and the economic unrest, which explains the horrible growth rate. The 1980s oil bust may have also been still affecting the growth rate as well. By 1992 this oil bust had turned around helping the growth return to Jordan. In addition, 1992 was a time of change for the Jordanian government, which may have played a role. The current decrease in GDP growth can easily be blamed on the current state of the economy in the world. With the dependency of Jordan’s economy on others, it would naturally decrease along with the others. In addition, according to the World Bank, Jordan’s current labor participation rate is only 49.8 percent of its population. This may also be because of the state of the world economy. Although Jordan’s economic development is facing a major setback, there is hope for its future. From its establishment it has faced a lack of natural resources causing it to have an

dominated by the state and subject to outdated laws (Lowrance 860). Some theorize that elections in these situations are more likely to sustain the authoritarian regime than to promote democracy (Lust-Okar 468). In the 1997 Jordanian elections, less than 33 percent of candidates discussed strengthening democratic life and fewer than 10 percent focused on issues of electoral law. Instead, elections in Jordan tend to provide an arena of competition over access to state resources (459). Some members of government have complained that the Jordan public lacks an interest in public issues (460.) Although political parties were legalized in 1992, Jordanians have not taken much interest in them, and view parties as personalistic cliques as well as ineffective. As of 2003, political parties remain unknown on ballets. A 2003 poll in Jordan showed that 33 percent of voters voted for someone in their tribe or family and 49 percent voted for someone with whom they had close personal ties (461). Scholars believe there are promises of liberalization and democratization in Jordan, but there are many political actors for whom democracy and policymaking are not priorities (467). Political elites in Jordan take elections very seriously and invest enormously in elections, and their role in these elections makes the hope for true democracy weaker (457). Jordan is not a full-fledged democracy, but the margin of freedoms has considerably expanded in recent years, although not to the level of a full democracy (Lowrance 84). As previously mentioned, in 1992 political parties were legalized. In addition to this, the press has gained significantly more freedom, and the presence of secret police has noticeably declined (86). In 2008, freedom house scores categorized Jordan as partly free, with civil liberties coming in at a four and political rights at a five due to parliament passing new legislation governing political parties but failing to enact key changes to the electoral law. In 2009, Jordan’s freedom house civil liberties score declined from a four to a five due to a series of arrests that brought citizens’ freedom of speech into question. Their political rights score remained a five, leaving

Jordan still ranking as partly free. However, recently in 2010, Jordan’s political rights score declined from a five to a six due to king dissolving parliament and delaying elections, making it possible for the government to rule by decree for at least a year, dropping Jordan into a status of not free. Even though this may seem like a bad sign, there is still hope for the future. Freedom house numbers show that Jordan has fallen into not free status before and recovered. Jordan’s political development has made great strides in recent years. It has written a new constitution and declared itself a constitutional monarchy. The formerly repressed Islamic movement has been given the right to political participation. Jordan’s overall margin of freedoms has greatly increased including the legalizing of political parties. One of the greatest steps has been the creation of elections and the abilities given to the citizens to participate. Jordan’s political development is currently on the right track. Iraq Iraq became a state in 1921, assembled from three provinces of the former Ottoman Empire, but resulted more from Great Power self-interest than an attempt to build a coherent, functional, and self-sustaining state. The British were playing one ethnic or religious group against another to maintain control in Iraq (Vanzo 156). Ever since this time, ethnic and religious groups in Iraq have fought against and disagreed with one another, which has influenced social, economic, and political development within the country. Today, Iraq has a population of 30 million people, with 97 percent being Muslim. This Muslim category is broken down, however, into three conflicting groups, as later presented, and these groups are still struggling with one another today. Iraqi Social Development Where Iraq has been under monarchist rule or military rule or a dictator rule for the majority of their recent history, social development is a new occurrence (Vanzo 156). Iraq is

given any political rights. In all levels of political life, Christian participation has been limited. However, if they cooperated with the government, they benefited from the regime (129). Due to all the separate groups in Iraq, the outlook was grim in 2006, but there are hopes that “New Iraq” will have more social equality (Vanzo 155). Iraq’s social development has made some positive steps in recent years by including, not repressing minority ethnic and religious divisions. However, there are still obstacles that will need to be faced in the future. The feuds between these different groups still continue today and are serving as a wall to social development. Until these divisions can be dealt with and a solution can be found to the fights that will satisfy all factions, Iraq will only be able to move so far. There is hope for Iraq’s future social development if the correct steps are taken. Economic Development in Iraq Iraq’s economy is trying to make a transition from being wholly dependent on one resource to a more liberalized economy. Before 1991, Iraq’s economy was extremely dependent on oil, where 75 percent of their GDP in 1990 was made up of oil profits, and 100 percent of foreign exchange (Yousif 493). Iraq’s physical and industrial infrastructure was shattered by the 1991 Gulf War. During this time, there was a drastic drop in the standard of living. A shortage of foreign exchange caused an increased price for all goods, leading to a sharp rise in malnutrition because the healthcare system was reduced and ill-equipped (493). The economy had a low capacity for investment and lacked a skilled labor force, pushing the labor flow into agriculture, where farmers had to sell all of their output to be used as rations (494). In other words, when the Coalition forces took control in 2003, the economy was already largely ruined (493). The Coalition decided for abrupt liberalization of prices and markets aimed to improve efficiency in the allocation of resources and to expand output (491). The United States secured to absolution of 80 percent of Iraq’s debt and pushed for even more funds for reconstruction, but

when the Iraqi army was dissolved in 2003, reforms were put into place in currency, foreign trade, taxation, and capital markets, and tens of thousands lost their jobs (495). This rise in unemployment caused a decline in human development (498). Joblessness has promoted insecurity, which, in turn, has reduced Iraq’s already low capacity to absorb investments that are essential for transition. This has reinforced public anxiety about markets and is fueling resistance to reform. Iraq’s economy has now become one of the most open and unregulated in the world, and sustainable gains in output still remain elusive (491). Bassam Yousif admits that it may be premature to make judgments due to intense political and social turmoil, but believes some of the economic policies are partly responsible for the current violence and instability in Iraq (492). In addition, Coalition reforms have been ineffective in encouraging private investment because they claim there is too much risk (499). To date, the liberalization and rushed privatization in Iraq has failed. The failure to appreciate the political dimension of economic policies has taken away the legitimacy of the reform process and will make future reform difficult (501). Despite the difficulty that may be faced with future reform, the region of Kurdistan is considered to be booming with investment. A 20-year investment plan has been made for this area with the goal of reinvigorating the agricultural sector with hopes of becoming not only self- sustaining, but gaining the ability to supply the rest of Iraq as well (Boom). In addition, in this same area, a new international terminal is being built with the capacity to receive three million passengers a year, with hopes of bringing more visitors into the region (Boom). These types of plans and investments leaves hope for the future of Iraq and its economy. As seen with this investment plan, rebuilding is going to be another obstacle that Iraq will have to face along its road of development. In June 2010, three new companies had opened up in Iraq, and countless closed factories were being cleaned and prepared for reopening (Keller 43). Part of this is

to spread a national story to transcend ethnic and sectarian cleavages by reminding all Iraqi’s of a common heritage, but this fell apart in 1979 (Ahram 35). In the 1970s, the Baath regime imposed severe restrictions on the Shiites within Iraq. In turn, the Shiites opposed the regime until its fall in 2003, and at times even organizing underground movements (57). The 2003 United States invasion gave the Shiites a chance to get involved in politics, and many oppositionists that had fled to Iran returned to Iraq (58). Until this point, Iraqis have lived through over three decades of civil conflict and war that has traumatized and deeply altered political society (O’Mahony 121). Due to all of this, Iraqi regimes were never able to achieve political and cultural unity (Vanzo 156). After the American invasion in March 2003, Jay Garner was put into authority until May 6, 2003 when Paul Bremer took over to lead the Iraqi Governing Council. He also helped put together the Coalition Provisional Authority, which ruled Iraq from July 2003 until June 2004. In October 2003, a UN Security Council Resolution was passed that called for the transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqis (Noorbaksh 59). In June 2004, the United States began the transfer of sovereignty to an unelected provisional government (62). This would eventually lead to an elected government in 2005 (Walker 182). In January 2005, Iraqis voted in three elections, with an estimated 60 percent voter turnout (Walker 182). Some groups such as the Muslim Scholars Association boycotted the elections to show their displeasure of the continued United States’ presence in Iraq (185). Many election workers left their jobs before the elections due to threats (183). The main parties consisted of the Islamic Da’Wa Party and SCIRI, together known as the United Iraqi Alliance, and the two main Kurdish parties, the Barzani-led KDP and the Talabani-led PUK (186). The

elections took place under conditions of extreme insecurity and political turmoil, which made many people question the validity (187). The United Iraqi Alliance became the dominant party after the election, which encompasses a large number of Shiites (Ono 20). Despite the questioning however, many still consider the elections to have been a great success simply because they happened and that there was such a high voter turnout (17). In addition, although there were protests against the elections, it is believe that the majority of Iraqis wish for democracy (19). However, ethnic groups and religious sects greatly disagree with one another about the approval of the government (21). It is possible that ethnic and sectarian rifts will reduce Iraq to chaos, and it is highly probably that the differences in attitudes toward elections will result in a large obstacle to nation building in Iraq (22). In the end though, regardless of how you view the elections, they did take place with is the first step on the path to democracy for Iraq (24). Some scholars believe that there is great hope for a successful democratic transition in Iraq. Democratic institutions are not entirely new to the country, they had a parliamentary system from 1921 until 1958 under the Hashemite monarchy (Dawisha 36). During this time, political parties were in existence, and their differences from one another were tolerated. Members of the legislature could vote against the government without fear of retribution (37). However, this government was also known to ban newspapers for speaking virulently about the regime (38). The new regime will need to take into account the ethnic and religious diversity if they hope to be successful. If done properly, the division between the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds could become constructive (37).

Jordan and Iraq: A Review Both Jordan and Iraq had made steps toward higher levels of development. Since the United States invasion, Iraq has held successful elections and established a provisional government. All of Iraq’s ethnic and religious divisions may now participate in government and elections, unlike in the past when many of these groups were extremely repressed. Unfortunately, the three main divisions in Iraq, the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds still do not peacefully reside together, but continue to face problems with one another. Some believe that these issues, if put to proper use, could be constructive, while others believe it could be the greatest obstacle that Iraq will face on its road to democracy. The next few years will be the deciding factor for Iraq and what is to come as United States troops begin to withdraw and Iraq is left to govern and function on its own. Jordan has also made developmental steps and holds hope for the future. Although Jordan has always had a very dependent economy because of their lack of resources, some scholars believe that if Jordan were to put its oil shale into use, they would be set for a very long time, and recently Jordan’s government has taken an interest in doing so. Political parties have been legalized, and elections are being held as well. Most scholars believe that there are promises of liberalization and democratization for Jordan, with an end result of full democracy. Although both Jordan and Iraq are making steps in the right developmental direction, I believe Jordan to be the more developed of the two countries. Jordan has better freedom house scores, as well as a more united population. I believe that the obstacles created by the ethnic and religious divisions in Iraq will be much greater than the obstacle of a dependent economy will be for Jordan. Both Jordan and Iraq have had histories of some type of authoritarian rule, but are

making steps towards democracy in the present day, leaving great hope for a democratic future in both countries, even through the challenges faced in the three sections of development through ethnic and religious divisions in Iraq and a dependent economy in Jordan. I think both countries have a great chance for developmental success, but I believe Jordan is the more developed at this time.