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A set of notes from a university course on risk management, specifically focusing on the concept of loss aversion and its impact on decision making. The notes include references to daniel kahneman's book 'thinking, fast and slow' and various images of happy faces. The document also includes a table showing the difference between decision weights and actual probabilities, as well as a discussion on the fourfold pattern of gains and losses, and the certainty and possibility effects.
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Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-‐ Google Images: h3p://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/kentoh/kentoh0911/kentoh091100023/5810969-‐shiny-‐happy-‐people-‐smiling-‐faces-‐in-‐3d.jpg; also h3p://www.wordans.us/wordansfiles/images/2009/4/17/16896/16896_340.jpg?
Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-‐ Google images: hCp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_7YR-‐Rsp2dxo/TOisuERfXmI/AAAAAAAAACI/mpu3s5m-‐qYc/s1600/ happy_faces_lead_wideweb__470x339%2525252525252525252C0.jpg
Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-‐31. p. 303
Gains Losses High Probability Certainty Effect 95% chance to win $10, Fear of disappointment 95% chance to lose $10, Hope to avoid losses Low Probability Possibility Effect 5% chance to win $10, Hope of a large gain 5% chance to lose $10, Fear of a large loss Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-‐31 p. 317
Gains Losses High Probability Certainty Effect 95% chance to win $10, Fear of disappointment RISK AVERSE Accept unfavorable se3lmt 95% chance to lose $10, Hope to avoid losses RISK SEEKING Reject favorable se3lmt Low Probability Possibility Effect 5% chance to win $10, Hope of a large gain RISK SEEKING Reject favorable se3lmt 5% chance to lose $10, Fear of a large loss RISK AVERSE Accept unfavorable se3lmt Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-‐31 p. 317
Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-‐