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Risk Management: Understanding Loss Aversion and Decision Making, Study notes of Credit and Risk Management

A set of notes from a university course on risk management, specifically focusing on the concept of loss aversion and its impact on decision making. The notes include references to daniel kahneman's book 'thinking, fast and slow' and various images of happy faces. The document also includes a table showing the difference between decision weights and actual probabilities, as well as a discussion on the fourfold pattern of gains and losses, and the certainty and possibility effects.

Typology: Study notes

2011/2012

Uploaded on 03/09/2012

mejiaritch
mejiaritch 🇺🇸

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Risk Management:
Consideration of Loss Aversion
FIN 3360
Instructor: David Murray
CSUEB
Winter 2012
Lucé Economica, llc 2012
What%do%you%no/ce?%
Source:((Kahneman.(2011.(Thinking,(Fast(and(Slow.((Ch.(28?31(
Google(Images:(
h3p://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/kentoh/kentoh0911/kentoh091100023/5810969CshinyChappyCpeopleCsmilingCfacesCinC3d.jpg;%%
also%h3p://www.wordans.us/wordansfiles/images/2009/4/17/16896/16896_340.jpg?1258088400%
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Download Risk Management: Understanding Loss Aversion and Decision Making and more Study notes Credit and Risk Management in PDF only on Docsity!

Risk Management:

Consideration of Loss Aversion

FIN 3360

Instructor: David Murray

CSUEB

Winter 2012

Lucé Economica, llc 2012

What do you no/ce?

Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-­‐ Google Images: h3p://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/kentoh/kentoh0911/kentoh091100023/5810969-­‐shiny-­‐happy-­‐people-­‐smiling-­‐faces-­‐in-­‐3d.jpg; also h3p://www.wordans.us/wordansfiles/images/2009/4/17/16896/16896_340.jpg?

Does the one happy face in the picture

make you feel a lot cheerier?

Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-­‐ Google images: hCp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_7YR-­‐Rsp2dxo/TOisuERfXmI/AAAAAAAAACI/mpu3s5m-­‐qYc/s1600/ happy_faces_lead_wideweb__470x339%2525252525252525252C0.jpg

Goals can be reference points

Kahneman:

“ Loss aversion refers to the rela/ve strength of two

mo/ves: we are driven more strongly to avoid

losses than to achieve gains. “

“ A reference point is some/mes the status quo, but

it can also be a goal in the future: not achieving

a a goal is a loss, exceeding the goal is a gain. “

Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-­‐31. p. 303

Fourfold Pa3ern

Gains Losses High Probability Certainty Effect 95% chance to win $10, Fear of disappointment 95% chance to lose $10, Hope to avoid losses Low Probability Possibility Effect 5% chance to win $10, Hope of a large gain 5% chance to lose $10, Fear of a large loss Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-­‐31 p. 317

Fourfold Pa3ern

Gains Losses High Probability Certainty Effect 95% chance to win $10, Fear of disappointment RISK AVERSE Accept unfavorable se3lmt 95% chance to lose $10, Hope to avoid losses RISK SEEKING Reject favorable se3lmt Low Probability Possibility Effect 5% chance to win $10, Hope of a large gain RISK SEEKING Reject favorable se3lmt 5% chance to lose $10, Fear of a large loss RISK AVERSE Accept unfavorable se3lmt Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-­‐31 p. 317

Sources other than textbook

• Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking, Fast and

Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York,

NY. Chapters 28-­‐31.

Source: Kahneman. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Ch. 28-­‐