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Muir Woods: Proposed Reservation System for Visitor Management, Exams of Construction
The National Park Service proposes a reservation system for Muir Woods National Monument to manage increasing visitor numbers, reduce parking congestion, and ensure a positive and safe visitor experience. The system includes formalizing and regulating parking within and along Muir Woods Road, reducing annual visitation, and implementing a monitoring plan. The document also discusses the impact of heavy traffic and congestion on Muir Woods and the surrounding areas, and the partnership with Marin Transit to expand public transit to Muir Woods.
What you will learn
- What partnerships will be established to expand public transit to Muir Woods under the proposed reservation system?
- How will the proposed reservation system impact parking and visitor experience at Muir Woods?
- What are the expected reductions in annual visitation under the proposed reservation system?
- How will the proposed reservation system address parking and traffic congestion in and around Muir Woods?
- What are the goals and objectives of the proposed reservation system for Muir Woods National Monument?
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October 2015
Muir Woods National Monument
Reservation System
Environmental Assessment
Golden Gate National Recreation Area
ATTN: Muir Woods Reservation EA
Fort Mason, Building 201
San Francisco, CA 94123
Table of Contents
Page
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. Background ............................................................................................................................................................. Scope of the Environmental Assessment ...............................................................................................................
Alternatives ................................................................................................................................................... Alternative A – No Action ....................................................................................................................................... Alternative B – Proposed Action/Preferred Alternative......................................................................................... Alternatives Considered and Dismissed from Further Analysis ............................................................................. Impact Topics Retained for Further Analysis.......................................................................................................... Impact Topics Dismissed from Further Analysis .....................................................................................................
Affected Environment and Environmental Consequences.............................................................................. 11 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Methodology for Assessing Impacts.................................................................................................................... 11 Visitor Use and Experience .................................................................................................................................. 12 Transportation ..................................................................................................................................................... 19
Consultation and Coordination ..................................................................................................................... 23 Internal Scoping ................................................................................................................................................... 23 External Scoping .................................................................................................................................................. 23 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................ List of Acronyms .....................................................................................................................................................
List of Figures Figure 1. Parking Management Corridor for Muir Woods National Monument Figure 2. Daily Visitation Goals for Muir Woods National Monument Figure 3. Comparison of Estimated Visitation under the Preferred Alternative, the No Action Alternative, and the Visitation Profile Figure 4. Estimated Average Daily Visitation under the Preferred Alternative and the No Action Alternative Figure 5. Existing and Planned Routes for Marin Transit Routes 66 and 66F Figure 6. Estimated Personal Occupancy Vehicle Trips under the Preferred Alternative and the No Action Alternative Figure 7. Estimated Muir Woods Shuttle Trips under the Preferred Alternative and the No Action Alternative
List of Tables Table 1. Summary of Scoping Comments Received
List of Appendices Appendix A – Public Notice – September 17, 2013 and June 18, 2014 public meetings Appendix B – Draft Memorandum of Understanding, County and Marin and GGNRA Appendix C – Golden Gate National Recreation Area General Management Plan/Environmental Impact Statement - Chapter 7, User Capacity
County of Marin). Access would be managed to a level that meets goals while providing visitors with a high- quality arrival experience. The proposed action would also reduce the visitor crowding and traffic congestion currently experienced during peak periods at Muir Woods.
The management of visitation is needed in order to address the complex, longstanding problems with overcrowding and traffic congestion that visitors experience during peak periods. These conditions, caused by growing visitor demand, have resulted in a degraded visitor arrival and departure experience, with overcrowding and traffic congestion occurring during peak periods. These periods of high visitation have expanded in recent years and now occur throughout much of the year. Conditions visitors experience during these times include public safety risks, difficulty finding a parking space, long walks along Lower Muir Woods Road to reach the monument, and a general sense of overcrowding and frustration. These conditions detract from one of the principal park goals for the monument—providing an inspiring and contemplative experience. Additionally, traffic congestion affects nearby residents and neighbors of the monument, as well as County of Marin and California Department of Parks and Recreation (CDPR) resources.
Prevailing conditions do not meet the following park management goals outlined in the GMP:
Create enjoyable and welcoming transportation experiences for all visitors. Preserve and protect park resources by minimizing transportation impacts. Create equitable and convenient multimodal transportation options to and within the park. Inspire environmental consciousness by demonstrating environmental excellence in transportation. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
A successful proposed action would achieve the following objectives:
Manage visitation levels to reduce peak season overcrowding, preserve periods of lower levels of visitation on weekdays and off-peak periods, and meet associated visitor experience standards in the GMP.
Manage motorized access to Muir Woods, including car, shuttle, and commercial tours buses to reduce traffic congestion in the park, enhance the protection of resources in the Redwood Creek watershed, and enhance overall visitor experience.
Provide for continued vehicular access for park operations, staff, and local residents, as well as for emergency vehicles.
Improve the ability for visitors to plan their trip to Muir Woods, adhere to their planned daily itinerary (which often includes other Northern California destinations)and make efficient use of their recreational time.
Maintain equitable access for visitors, and charge no more than the reasonable fees necessary to manage transportation activities, along with the development of a complimentary access program for underserved communities.
Scope of the Environmental Assessment
This Environmental Assessment (EA) will analyze the No Action and Proposed Action alternatives and their respective potential impacts on the environment. The EA has been prepared in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, as amended (NEPA); the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality
(CEQ) (40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] 1508.9); NPS Director’s Order 12: Conservation Planning, Environmental Impact Analysis, and Decision Making; the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, as amended (NHPA); and the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended. The assessment of effect analyzes potential effects of historic properties under section 106 of the NHPA.
Connected Action (40 CFR Sec. 1508.25): The proposed action is related to but not dependent upon the following project that is planned in the vicinity by the NPS and other public agencies:
Muir Woods Site Improvements (NPS project)– Project would improve the entry and arrival visitor facilities for the monument, including parking lots, pedestrian trails, gathering spaces, improved restrooms, and vehicle loading/unloading areas. The compliance process for this project began in 2013 and is ongoing, with construction anticipated in 2018-2021.
The proposed Reservation System for Muir Woods:
does not trigger another action;
can proceed independently of future site improvements because implementing a reservation system now addresses existing concerns regarding parking and transportation regardless of whether the site improvements proposed in the Site Improvement Scoping Notice are undertaken ;
is not reliant on the implementation of the proposed actions described in the scoping notice for Muir Woods Site Improvements;
and does not depend on the proposed Site Improvement actions for its justification;
This proposed action meets the "independent utility" test in that the implementation would take place with or without the implementation of any other action.
Alternatives
Alternative A – No Action
Alternative A, or the No Action Alternative, would leave existing access to Muir Woods unchanged by the NPS. Under this alternative, visitation to Muir Woods would be expected to increase by approximately 1% growth per year or an increase from an estimate of 1,000,747 visitors in 2014 to a projection of 1,031,000 visitors in 2017. Existing access could be described as managed, but relatively unregulated. Visitors would continue to be encouraged through the Muir Woods website, signs, and other media to visit during off-peak hours and use alternative forms of transportation such as public transit (e.g., the Muir Woods Shuttle) and commercial tours. Enforcement of parking regulations along Muir Woods Road would continue to be coordinated with the County of Marin Sheriff and California Department of Parks and Recreation with limited participation from NPS, to reduce parking in illegal, unsafe, and/or resource-damaging areas. This alternative assumes that the county will enforce parking restrictions that it has established on Muir Woods Road, including reduction of parking supply to approximately 110.
Alternative B – Proposed Action/Preferred Alternative
Under Alternative B, which is the Proposed Action or Preferred Alternative, the NPS would actively manage access to Muir Woods through establishment of a reservation system for all modes of motorized access to Muir Woods. The reservation system (hereinafter referred to as “reservation system” or “system”) includes two
Reduction of parking on Muir Woods Road to approximately 110, with approximately 80 downstream of the concrete bridge (See Figure 1).
Placement of physical barriers and signage along Muir Woods Road between Panoramic Highway and Highway 1 to prevent vehicles from parking illegally. The barriers will support enforcement of the parking supply limits allowed in the MOU (Appendix B). The physical barriers will include placement of a combination of posts and post-and-cable fencing approximately two feet off the fog line of the road, as well as other minor improvements to ensure compliance of parking restrictions. The extent and placement of these measures will be determined by mutual agreement between the National Park Service and County of Marin; however, because the road is owned and maintained by the County, they retain authority and must permit these actions.
In the Conlon Avenue area within Muir Woods, a set of maintenance and modest improvement actions would be taken. These would include light grading of approximately 20,000 square feet of currently disturbed area (currently used as overflow parking and maintenance bone yard), laying down of gravel base, installing wattles and other stormwater BMP’s, widening the driveway into the area to improve emergency vehicle access, and removal of 1 tree, which is showing evidence of sudden oak death. The tree would be removed and disposed of according to standard practice for trees with that disease.
Installation of a small, temporary visitor contact station near the entrance of Muir Woods for on-site parking management staff to answer visitor questions related to reservations and parking, and to store any equipment they need to conduct their work (radios, computer, phone, etc.). The location has not been specifically identified, but will occur on NPS property.
Provide additional NPS Law Enforcement Ranger capacity (equivalent to 1 full time person) for parking enforcement and management within Muir Woods National Monument and along the Parking Enforcement Corridor and assume primary responsibility for parking management and enforcement along that corridor beginning no later than January 1, 2016.
Coordinate with CDPR to ensure annual non-toxic vegetation management for safety purposes within the right-of-way in areas where physical barriers prevent efficient access by County Road Maintenance staff.
Phase 2 This phase of the project includes the following actions associated with starting and operating the reservation system for the first 2.5 years. In general, these actions will include the operation and management of the reservation system, enforcing parking restrictions along the entire length of Muir Woods Road, performing routine maintenance, and implementing a monitoring plan. The specific actions include:
Implementation of a transportation reservation system to manage motorized access to the monument, including Muir Woods Road, (website, call center, parking management, parking enforcement, etc.). A third-party operator would be selected through the competitive federal government prospectus process; the selected operator would develop and implement the transportation reservation system to manage motorized access to the monument, with oversight by the NPS. o Require reserved permit parking in the area defined in the Parking Management Corridor and in the NPS Muir Woods parking lots in accordance with the MOU. Parking on the road would not
exceed approximately 110, with approximately 80 downstream of the concrete bridge during this phase. o Collect and retain reservation/permit fees from Muir Woods visitors to support the system’s operation and other obligations in the MOU. o Manage the reservation system resulting in visitation levels that are at or below those identified in Figure 2 o Prohibit bus parking along Muir Woods Road and require tour bus operators to secure a reservation. o Manage changeable message signs (CMS) along Highway 101 and other State or local roads to support the reservation system. o Provide information on its website and public service announcements to inform visitors of the need to secure a reservation.
Assume routine day-to-day operational responsibilities within the Parking Management Corridor on Muir Woods Road, which includes, but is not limited to, parking management, non-toxic vegetation management, litter collection, and routine maintenance (surface treatment) of shoulder and pedestrian areas.
Upon commencement of the reservation system, provide one additional NPS Law Enforcement Ranger capacity (equivalent to 1 full time person, for a total of 2 full time employees) for routine day to day operational responsibilities for parking enforcement and management within Muir Woods National Monument and along the Parking Enforcement Corridor. To acknowledge that by providing the NPS with the authority necessary to enforce traffic and parking regulations throughout the Parking Enforcement Corridor, the Sheriff does not relinquish or reduce any of its existing authority to perform these functions during the entire term of the MOU.
Implementation of a monitoring and adaptive management program to track how effectively the reservation system is meeting GMP performance standards and adjusting (GMP, Vol 1, pg. 289-295). If the established performance standards are not being met the reservation system would be modified. Specific measures to be monitored would include: o hourly and daily vehicle and visitor arrival rates, including POV’s, buses, shuttles and pedestrians; o Visitor metrics and level of service within the monument arrival plaza; o visitor use metrics inside the monument (i.e., people at one time, people per view, encounters on trails, noise levels, and social trails).
Phase 3 This phase of the project is for the second 2.5 years of operation of the reservation system. It includes the same actions as Phase 2, but parking on Muir Woods Road is reduced to approximately 70, with approximately 40 downstream of the Concrete Bridge. The exception to these limits is that during periods of construction on projects within the Muir Woods area that displaces vehicles parked elsewhere in the watershed, up to 80 vehicles may be parked downstream of the bridge.
Phase 4 This phase of the project extends from the conclusion of year 5 of the reservation system through year 20. It includes the same actions as Phase 2, but parking on Muir Woods Road is reduced to approximately 30, with none downstream of the Concrete Bridge.
Figure 2. Daily Visitation Capacity for Muir Woods National Monument (MOU)
Alternatives Considered and Dismissed from Further Analysis
Expanded Shuttle and Information Systems (without Reservation System) As an alternative, the NPS considered significantly expanding the existing Muir Woods Shuttle to reduce personal vehicle trips and manage overall demand, as the sole proposed action. The NPS began operating the Muir Woods Shuttle in cooperation with Marin Transit in 2005. Service has expanded significantly over the shuttle’s ten years of operation. Marin Transit and the NPS have increased the number of coaches and the frequency of trips to and from the monument, as well as modified routes to improve efficiency. In tandem with the shuttle service, the NPS has installed changeable message signs on highway approaches, as well as through messages on the NPS website about when parking is full. Ridership has increased more than tenfold since the service’s inception, from carrying fewer than 5,000 visitors to and from the monument in 2006, to carrying over 50,200 in 2014. The shuttle currently operates 10 coaches during peak periods, with shuttle frequency every 10 minutes. On days of operation during peak season, the shuttle provides transportation for 20–25% of Muir Woods’ visitors.
Despite increases in shuttle ridership, annual visitation to the monument via all other transportation modes has increased at an even faster rate. Over the period the shuttle has been operational, overall visitation has risen from approximately 775,000 visitors in 2005 to approximately 1,000,747 visitors in 2014, an increase of approximately 226,000 visitors. During the same period, shuttle ridership has increased from 0 to 50,200 (visitor round trips). The net difference between these numbers, approximately 176,000 annually, have predominantly come by personal vehicles. The shuttle service has become an integral component of the Muir Woods transportation system, but it has not reduced vehicle trips sufficiently, due to the lack of a system in place to control overall visitor demand. For this reason, this alternative would not meet project objectives.
Impact Topics Retained for Further Analysis
The following impact topics were retained for further analysis. These topics were identified on the basis of federal laws, regulations, and orders; NPS Management Policies (2006); and NPS knowledge of resources at Muir
Woods. Impact topics that were retained for further analysis were those that would result in impacts greater than minor, negative or beneficial.
Visitor Use and Visitor Experience Providing appropriate, high-quality opportunities for visitors to enjoy the parks is a fundamental purpose of the NPS. These opportunities for enjoyment are directed to be uniquely suited and appropriate to the natural and cultural resources found in the parks. The project will enhance the ways in which visitors utilize Muir Woods by providing easier transportation access, reducing traffic congestion and the frustrations surrounding being unable to park within a reasonable walking distance, as well as by enhancing the opportunity for public enjoyment of the beauty, serenity, and sounds of nature within the monument.
This impact topic is also where the concept of carrying capacity is described. Visitor carrying capacity is the type and level of visitor use that can be accommodated while sustaining the desired resource and visitor experience conditions in the park (NPS Management Policies, 2006). The carrying capacity for Muir Woods, referred to as user capacity, has been analyzed and documented in the GMP, Volume 1, pg. 289-295. The proposed action is directly related to achieving the standards described in the GMP. The impacts from this action on Visitor Use and Visitor Experience will be substantially beneficial.
Transportation As part of its Management Policies the NPS is directed to find transportation solutions that will preserve the natural and cultural resources in its care while providing a high-quality visitor experience. Implementation of the proposed action would result in a decrease in the number of vehicles being driven to the monument, which in turn would also reduce traffic and congestion in the surrounding areas and enable the desired visitor experience to be maintained. The impacts from this action on Transportation will be substantially beneficial.
Impact Topics Dismissed from Further Analysis
The impact topics described below have not been considered further in this EA because the environmental impacts associated with the issue or impact topic are unlikely to occur, are not potentially significant, or do not differ among alternatives in any meaningful way.
Water Quality Reduced shoulder parking would occur in both alternatives and would have negligible effects on the areas contributing to runoff; buffer zones would increase slightly, but benefits are expected to be minor. The Redwood Creek Watershed Assessment (NPS 2011b), did not identify any water quality problems in the watershed associated with parking in the watershed, including on Muir Woods Road. Reduction of parking on the road is therefore unlikely to improve water quality from non-point source storm water pollutants or improve overall water quality.
Threatened or Endangered Species Neither of the alternatives will negatively impact nor benefit local threatened or endangered species, including the northern spotted owl, coho salmon, or steelhead trout. The decline of migratory fish species has been associated with a number of factors including modification of habitat, habitat loss, water pollution, over utilization (for a number of purposes, including commercial and recreational fishing), disease and predation, oceanic conditions, and drought, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, Marine Fisheries Service’s Coho Salmon Recovery Plan (NOAA 2012). The NPS, in partnership with local, state, and other federal agencies and other non-governmental organizations, have been implementing a series of projects and programs to improve and restore habitat and conditions for these species, however, this project will not have a substantial impact, beneficial or negatively on them.
Viewscapes Placement of fencing and signs would have an effect on the viewshed in area. However, the proposed posts and fencing will be 30 inches in height or less and are not considered to substantially affect the viewscapes in the corridor. The impacts to viewscapes of these actions are expected to be minor.
Nightsky The proposed action will have no effect on night skies.
Affected Environment and Environmental Consequences
Introduction
In this EA, the Affected Environment and Environmental Consequences sections have been combined. The Affected Environment describes the area and resources that could be potentially impacted by implementation of either of the alternatives. The Environmental Consequences describe the direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts to those resources from the actions proposed in the alternatives. The sections are organized by impact topic, with the alternatives included as sub-headings.
Methodology for Assessing Impacts
Topics analyzed in this chapter consist of Visitor Use, Visitor Experience, and Transportation.
Direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts are analyzed for each of these resource topics. Potential impacts are described in terms of type, context, duration, and intensity. General definitions are as follows:
Type describes the classification of the impact as either beneficial or adverse, and as either direct or indirect. o Beneficial: A positive change in the condition or appearance of the resource, or a change that moves the resource towards a desired condition. o Adverse: A change that moves the resource away from a desired condition or detracts from its appearance or condition. o Direct: An effect that is caused by an action and that occurs in the same time and place. o Indirect: An effect that is caused by an action that is later in time and further removed in distance, but that is still reasonably foreseeable.
Context describes the area or location in which the impact will occur.
Duration describes the length of time an impact will occur, either short-term or long-term. Because definitions of short-term and long-term can differ by resource topic, definitions of these terms are provided separately for each topic.
Intensity describes the degree, level, or strength of an impact.
Cumulative Impacts CEQ regulations implementing NEPA require assessment of cumulative impacts in the decision-making process for federal projects. A cumulative effect is described in the CEQ regulations (1508.7) as: the impact on the environment which results from the incremental impacts of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (federal or non-federal) or person undertakes such other action. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor, but collectively significant, actions
taking place over a period of time. To determine potential cumulative impacts, projects within the project area and surrounding the area were identified. Potential projects identified as cumulative actions include any planning or development activity that has been completed, that is currently being implemented, or that will be implemented in the reasonably foreseeable future that could affect the same resources as the alternatives analyzed. These include the following:
All County of Marin actions in the MOU (Appendix B).
Muir Woods Water/Wastewater Infrastructure Rehabilitation (NPS project) – This project would renovate existing water and wastewater infrastructure between the visitor center and Conlon Ave, including supply and collection and is expected to occur in 2017 or 2018.
Muir Woods Site Improvements (NPS project)– This project would improve the entry and arrival visitor facilities for the monument, including parking lots, pedestrian trails, gathering spaces, improved restrooms, and vehicle loading/unloading areas. The compliance process for this project began in 2013 and is ongoing, with construction anticipated in 2018-2021.
Muir Woods Road Concrete Bridge Rehabilitation (County of Marin project) – This project would rehabilitate the existing bridge over Redwood Creek which has been determined to be structurally deficient. Construction is anticipated in 2018.
Muir Woods Road Rehabilitation Project (County of Marin project) – This project would repair current and emerging slumps that are impacting the structural integrity of Muir Woods Road, improving culverts and stormwater management, and rehabilitation the road between Muir Woods’ entrance and Highway
- Construction is anticipated in 2018.
Muir Woods Entrance Fee Increase (NPS)– In 2016, the NPS will raise the Muir Woods entry fee from $7 to $10 per visitor. This increase was part of an NPS nationwide fee adjustment to support operations and address on-going funding shortfalls, particularly in deferred maintenance of critical assets such as buildings, visitor centers and trails.
The impacts of these actions are evaluated in the cumulative impact analysis in conjunction with the impacts of each alternative to determine if they would have any additive effects on visitor use, visitor experience, or transportation.
Visitor Use and Experience
Affected Environment The visitor experience conditions at Muir Woods are very closely related to the visitor use and transportation conditions. Substantial and recurring high daily visitation levels have had a substantial impact on the visitor experience at Muir Woods. Visitation levels and arrival rates that exceed the monument’s user capacity (see Carrying Capacity section, and/or GMP, Chapter 7) result in the following visitor experience problems:
Parking in illegal or unsafe areas Visitors walking long distances and/or in unsafe areas, including in the travel lanes of Muir Woods Road Congestion in the parking lots, creating driver frustration Crowding in the arrival experience and within the monument Excessive noise Reduced opportunities to appreciate the beauty, serenity, and sounds of nature within the monument.
Informal trails – Proliferation of informal trails is not currently a serious problem, because the NPS has greatly increased efforts to clearly delineate designated trails and to educate visitors to stay on trails (GMP 2015). Instances of informal trails are evident in the areas near parking along Muir Woods Road and are an issue primarily during peak periods, when parking is over-utilized in designated areas.
Soundscapes from human-caused noise – Measures that have been employed by the NPS to manage soundscape include the introduction of “quiet zones” in the monument and the education/encouragement of visitors through signs and at the entry gate to voluntarily protect the soundscape (GMP 2015).
Evidence of visitor-caused wear or disturbance to the redwood trees – Evidence of impacts to the redwood trees from visitor use is minimal. Areas that have seen impacts are located along established trails. In order to reduce/eliminate this impact, the NPS has been constructing boardwalks and railings in order to reduce the impacts to tree roots from trails, particularly in the more frequently visited areas of the monument.
Invasive species – Visitor use is not the only or even primary source of invasive species; however, such species can be spread through visitor use. The NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program has been monitoring the number of detections and the extent of cover of invasive species as part of the Vital Signs Program. The goal of the program is to target new or expanding infestations. If monitoring detects a change in the number or extent of invasive species, then a problem analysis would be needed to isolate the causal factors. If visitor use were determined to be a contributing factor to the observed change in conditions, then appropriate visitor use management strategies would be identified and implemented. Some of the management activities that the NPS has been employing in relation to this issue include educating visitors to stay on trails, clearly marking designated trails, and restricting activities that might increase the introduction of invasive species (GMP 2015).
The priority social indicators identified in the GMP include density and event-based metrics: people at one time (PAOT), people per view (PPV), and encounters along trails. Specific standards and indicators for these metrics were established using surveys and models to identify the maximum acceptable levels (numbers of visitors above which management actions should be initiated) for these metrics at Muir Woods. The GMP indicators and standards were developed from 2003/2004 and 2009 Muir Woods visitation studies, as well as NPS staff knowledge of conditions, input from user capacity experts Drs. Manning and Lawson, the output of similar PAOT research at Yosemite National Park, and national standards for Level of Service developed by the National Transportation Safety Board. Indicators and standards were selected based on their level of importance for protecting Muir Woods’ purpose, significance, fundamental resources and values and associated desired conditions, and the clarity of connection between human use and impact of concern (crowding and congestion). The feasibility of each indicator (relationship to an existing monitoring effort) and how well the indicator would provide useful management information on the amount, location, timing and/or behavior of visitor use were also considered.
Crowding and congestion indicators and standards were established based on the median value of surveyed visitors’ subjective perceptions of a limited selection of crowding conditions, so there is an equal probability of the value being higher or lower than the standard. They were also established with the understanding that there will be tradeoffs and implications. For example, since standards are defined as the point at which certain conditions (indicators) become unacceptable, then the question is how often to avoid this situation. In most cases, a park will be doing well if it can avoid unacceptable social conditions 90% of the time. The 90% probability of conditions being at or above standard allows for 10% of the time to include random or unusual events (e.g., holiday weekends) that might prevent management from providing these conditions. This also allows for the complexity and randomness inherent in visitor use patterns, which is most relevant for social standards (NPS 2009).
Several analysis approaches demonstrate a strong correlation between social conditions and daily visitor use levels, and point to those visitation levels at which social indicators and standards established in the GMP will most typically be reached. Simulations and regression analyses performed using Muir Woods research data suggest that the maximum daily use levels to maintain the GMP standards fall within a range of 3,550 to 4, daily visitation. This suggests that the average of this range, 4,205 daily visitation, is an appropriate initial maximum user capacity planning standard, with the NPS striving to maintain no more than 10% of days above this limit. The monitoring program will continue to track conditions in relation to these GMP standards and will take management action to address issues per guidance in the GMP and NPS management policies.
Impacts of Alternative A – No Action Under Alternative A, visitation levels are expected to continue to increase by approximately 1% per year. Visitation growth has averaged approximately 1.5% annually over the last 15 years; however, the NPS is forecasting a lower average growth rate over time to adjust for the recent spike in growth rates (6.4% growth 2010 – 14) that may be skewing the data upward. Annual visitation based on 1% annual growth is expected to increase from 1,000,747 visitors in 2014 to 1,031,000 visitors in 2017. Visitation levels have already reached levels at which the GMP’s standards are being exceeded on a frequent basis. The GMP specifies that these standards should not be exceeded on more than 10% of the days in a year (i.e., 36 days); in 2014, the standards were exceeded on 69 days, or 19% of the year. It is anticipated that even higher visitation levels in future years will result in an increased frequency in the number of occurrences during which the GMP standards are exceeded. In 2017, it is forecast that the number of days during which the GMP standards are exceeded will increase to 74 days (20%), and in 2022, 85 days (23%).
These levels of visitation will result in continuing and increasing vehicular congestion levels in the watershed, both in the monument’s parking lots and on Upper and Lower Muir Woods Road. In addition, whenever parking demand is substantially higher than supply, informal parking in illegal and unsafe locations will increase, with visitors walking longer distances in unsafe conditions and creating informal trails in the park that damage resources.
Cumulative Impacts Under Alternative A, cumulative impacts to Visitor Use will be affected by construction of projects in the project area (page 13). These impacts would likely last through the entire period of construction (~5 months per year 2018-2021) and the intensity of the impacts would be serious. Without the ability to manage vehicle trips into the construction zones, areas that are currently very congested will be even more so. This could lead to extensive delays, driver/visitor frustration, safety problems, creation of new social trails, resource impacts, and delays and added costs to construction operations.
Impacts of Alternative B – Proposed Action/Preferred Alternative (Environmentally Preferable Alternative)
Days of extremely high daily visitation levels (> 4,500) would be minimized or eliminated. Visitation would be more evenly distributed over the course of a day, with a reduced numbers of visitors per hour during peak times of the day. These actions would bring visitor use levels into alignment with the GMP performance indicators and standards. By reducing peak period arrival rates, combined with active monitoring and adjustments to the number of reservations, the NPS would have the ability to better meet operational needs and ensure that visitor experience and other visitor-related impacts to resources are kept within standards.
Under Alternative B, annual visitation is expected to be reduced from 1,000,747 visitors in 2014 to 924, visitors in 2017. By managing demand and reducing peak period visitation levels through the reservation system, the Proposed Action would bring Muir Woods into compliance with the criterion of having no more than 10% of the days in excess of the performance standards and indicators as defined in Chapter 7 of the GMP. The
Figure 3 Comparison of projected Visitation under the Preferred Alternative and the No Action Alternative (NPS)
Figure 4. Estimated Average Daily Visitation (all modes) under the Preferred and No Action Alternatives
The proposed action will adversely affect some visitors’ use of the monument by requiring that some visitors shift the timing of their visits. The system will affect the visitation of approximately 215,000, or 21.5% of annual visitors that planned to drive to Muir Woods. These visitors, who principally visit on peak season weekends, are those who would be affected by needing to shift the date or time of their visit to find an available time. It is assumed that some of these visitors, approximately 75,000 in 2017, will be unable to find a time and need to
reschedule a visit to another less crowded time of year or forgo a visit. For this analysis, it is assumed they will chose to forgo a visit rather than shift to another season. This impact may diminish over time as public awareness of the reservation system increases, resulting in a natural shift in visitation patterns into off-peaks. Impacts may be further mitigated by increased availability of public transit during off season and shoulder seasons (Muir Woods Shuttle).
While the visitor experience may be enhanced under the Proposed Action, visitor use may be negatively impacted by the increased costs associated with implementing it. To start, it is estimated that the cost to visit Muir Woods will increase by approximately $3 per visitor. This assumes that the cost to park a POV at the monument would be between $8 and $10 with an average POV occupancy of approximately 3.1.
Cumulative Impacts Visitor Use will be affected by the construction of facilities in the project area, but these are expected to be minor and manageable. It is likely that construction activities will require periodic shifts in where parking occurs in the area as road shoulders and/or parking lots are reconstructed, however, it is expected that overall visitor use levels will be relatively unaffected. The proposed action (reservation system) would support the management of parking during construction within designated areas of Muir Woods Road or in NPS managed parking lots at Muir Woods. The reservation and parking management systems that are included in the proposed action would reduce impacts and allow the park to adaptively manage demand and visitation levels to ensure that impacts to visitor use and experience are kept to manageable levels.
Cost to visitors will be affected by the cumulative impacts of the entry fee being adjusted in 2016 and the cost of implementing the Proposed Action in 2017. The range of combined cost to visitors of these two actions above existing conditions is expected to approximately $6.00. However, this increase in cost associated with visitor use, is considered a minor impact and can be mitigated through existing NPS programs that provide opportunities for lower-income visitors. Historically, visitation levels to Muir Woods have shown a resilience following fee increases, with visitation increasing steadily and consistently despite cost increases over the past 18 years.
Conclusion Overall, the implementation of the Proposed Action would be beneficial for the visitor experience at Muir Woods, including the arrival and departure experience as well as the experience within the monument. The visitation profile defined above in Figure 2 is consistent with the goal of compliance with GMP goals and standards. Several analytical approaches demonstrate a robust relationship between social conditions and daily visitor use levels and point to use levels at which social indicators and standards established in the GMP will most typically be reached. Simulations and regression analysis results suggest a maximum use level of 3,550 to 4,860 daily visitation to maintain the GMP indicators and standards, suggesting that 4,200 daily visitation is an appropriate initial maximum user capacity planning standard, subject to future monitoring and refinement, that will not be exceeded more than 10% of the time.
The visitation profile (figure 2) represents the maximum visitation level to which the NPS would manage operation of the reservation system. Managing to this level would ensure reasonable access to the public to experience the monument, while protecting resources and meeting other GMP goals and performance measures. It would ensure that visitors can have diverse experiences; would provide the highest visitation capacities whenever demand is highest (weekends between Memorial Day and Labor Day) and would achieve reduced visitation levels during off-peak seasons to provide quieter and less crowded experiences for reflection and contemplation among the majestic old-growth forest.