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Notes on Summary of Basic Probability Theory - Topics in Statistics | MATH 218, Study notes of Mathematics

Material Type: Notes; Professor: Joyce; Class: TOPICS IN STATISTICS; Subject: Mathematics; University: Clark University; Term: Spring 2008;

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Summary of basic probability theory, part 3
D. Joyce, Clark University
Math 218, Mathematical Statistics, Jan 2008
Joint distributions. When studing two related
real random variables Xand Y, it is not enough
just to know the distributions of each. Rather, the
pair (X, Y ) has a joint distribution. You can think
of (X, Y ) as naming a single random variable that
takes values in the plane R2.
Joint and marginal probability mass func-
tions. Let’s consider the discrete case first where
both Xand Yare discrete random variables.
The probability mass function for Xis fX(x) =
P(X=x), and the p.m.f. for Yis fY(y) = P(Y=y).
The joint random variable (X, Y ) has its own p.m.f.
denoted f(X,Y )(x, y), or more briefly f(x, y ):
f(x, y) = P((X, Y )=(x, y)) = P(X=xand Y=y),
and it determines the two individual p.m.f.s by
fX(x) = X
y
f(x, y), fY(y) = X
x
f(x, y).
The individual p.m.f.s are usually called marginal
probability mass functions.
For example, sssume that the random variables
Xand Yhave the joint probability mass function
given in this table.
Y
1 0 1 2
1 0 1/36 1/6 1/12
X0 1/18 0 1/18 0
1 0 1/36 1/6 1/12
2 1/12 0 1/12 1/6
By adding the entries row by row, we find the the
marginal function for X, and by adding the entries
column by column, we find the marginal function
for Y. We can write these marginal functions on
the margins of the table.
Y fX
1 0 1 2
1 0 1/36 1/6 1/12 5/18
X0 1/18 0 1/18 0 1/9
1 0 1/36 1/6 1/12 5/18
2 1/12 0 1/12 1/6 1/3
fY5/36 1/18 17/36 1/3
Discrete random variables Xand Yare indepen-
dent if and only if the joint p.m.f is the product of
the marginal p.m.f.s
f(x, y) = fX(x)fY(y).
In the example above, Xand Yaren’t independent.
Joint and marginal cumulative distribu-
tion functions. Besides the p.m.f.s, there are
joint and marginal cumulative distribution func-
tions. The c.d.f. for Xis FX(x) = P(Xx), while
the c.d.f. for Yis FY(y) = P(Yy). The joint
random variable (X, Y ) has its own c.d.f. denoted
F(X,Y )(x, y), or more briefly F(x, y ):
F(x, y) = P(Xxand Yy),
and it determines the two marginal p.m.f.s by
FX(x) = lim
y→∞ F(x, y), FY(y) = lim
x→∞ F(x, y).
Joint and marginal probability density
functions. Now let’s consider the continuous case
where Xand Yare both continuous. The last
paragraph on c.d.f.s still applies, but we’ll have
1
pf2

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Summary of basic probability theory, part 3

D. Joyce, Clark University

Math 218, Mathematical Statistics, Jan 2008

Joint distributions. When studing two related real random variables X and Y , it is not enough just to know the distributions of each. Rather, the pair (X, Y ) has a joint distribution. You can think of (X, Y ) as naming a single random variable that takes values in the plane R^2.

Joint and marginal probability mass func- tions. Let’s consider the discrete case first where both X and Y are discrete random variables. The probability mass function for X is fX (x) = P (X=x), and the p.m.f. for Y is fY (y) = P (Y =y). The joint random variable (X, Y ) has its own p.m.f. denoted f(X,Y )(x, y), or more briefly f (x, y):

f (x, y) = P ((X, Y )=(x, y)) = P (X=x and Y =y),

and it determines the two individual p.m.f.s by

fX (x) =

∑ y

f (x, y), fY (y) =

∑ x

f (x, y).

The individual p.m.f.s are usually called marginal probability mass functions. For example, sssume that the random variables X and Y have the joint probability mass function given in this table.

Y − 1 0 1 2 − 1 0 1 / 36 1 / 6 1 / 12 X 0 1 / 18 0 1 / 18 0 1 0 1 / 36 1 / 6 1 / 12 2 1 / 12 0 1 / 12 1 / 6

By adding the entries row by row, we find the the marginal function for X, and by adding the entries column by column, we find the marginal function

for Y. We can write these marginal functions on the margins of the table.

Y fX − 1 0 1 2 − 1 0 1 / 36 1 / 6 1 / 12 5 / 18 X 0 1 / 18 0 1 / 18 0 1 / 9 1 0 1 / 36 1 / 6 1 / 12 5 / 18 2 1 / 12 0 1 / 12 1 / 6 1 / 3 fY 5 / 36 1 / 18 17 / 36 1 / 3

Discrete random variables X and Y are indepen- dent if and only if the joint p.m.f is the product of the marginal p.m.f.s

f (x, y) = fX (x)fY (y).

In the example above, X and Y aren’t independent. Joint and marginal cumulative distribu- tion functions. Besides the p.m.f.s, there are joint and marginal cumulative distribution func- tions. The c.d.f. for X is FX (x) = P (X≤x), while the c.d.f. for Y is FY (y) = P (Y ≤y). The joint random variable (X, Y ) has its own c.d.f. denoted F(X,Y )(x, y), or more briefly F (x, y):

F (x, y) = P (X≤x and Y ≤y),

and it determines the two marginal p.m.f.s by

FX (x) = limy→∞ F (x, y), FY (y) = limx→∞ F (x, y).

Joint and marginal probability density functions. Now let’s consider the continuous case where X and Y are both continuous. The last paragraph on c.d.f.s still applies, but we’ll have

marginal probability density functions fX (x) and fY (y), and a joint probability density function f (x, y) instead of probability mass functions. Of course, the derivatives of the marginal c.d.f.s are the density functions

fX (x) =

d dx

FX (x) fY (y) =

d dy

FY (y)

and the c.d.f.s can be found by integrating the den- sity functions

FX (x) =

∫ (^) x

−∞

fX (t) dt FY (y) =

∫ (^) y

−∞

fY (t) dt.

The joint probability density function f (x, y) is found by taking the derivative of F twice, once with respect to each variable, so that

f (x, y) =

∂x

∂y

F (x, y).

(The notation ∂ is substituted for d to indicate that there are other variables in the expression that are held constant while the derivative is taken with respect to the given variable.) The joint cumula- tive distribution function can be recovered from the joint density function by integrating twice

F (x, y) =

∫ (^) x

−∞

∫ (^) y

−∞

f (s, t) dt ds.

Furthermore, the marginal density functions can be found by integrating joint density function.

fX (x) =

∫ (^) ∞

−∞

f (x, y) dy, fY (x) =

∫ (^) ∞

−∞

f (x, y) dx

Continuous random variables X and Y are inde- pendent if and only if the joint density function is the product of the marginal density functions

f (x, y) = fX (x)fY (y).

Covariance and correlation. The covariance of two random variables X and Y is defined as

Cov(X, Y ) = σXY = E((X − μX )(Y − μY )).

It can be shown that

Cov(X, Y ) = E(XY ) − μX μY.

When X and Y are independent, then σXY = 0, but in any case

Var(X + Y ) = Var(X) + 2 Cov(X, Y ) + Var(Y ).

Covariance is a bilinear operator, which means it is linear in each coordinate

Cov(X 1 + X 2 , Y ) = Cov(X 1 , Y ) + Cov(X 2 , Y ) Cov(aX, Y ) = a Cov(X, Y ) Cov(X, Y 1 + Y 2 ) = Cov(X, Y 1 ) + Cov(X, Y 2 ) Cov(X, bY ) = b Cov(X, Y )

The correlation, or correlation coefficient, of X and Y is defined as

ρXY =

σXY σX σY

Correlation is always a number between −1 and 1.