UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Key Takeaways
The IC assesses that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and
infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November
2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December
2019. In addition, the IC was able to reach broad agreement on several other key issues. We
judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon. Most agencies also assess with low
confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies
believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way. Finally, the IC
assesses China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of
COVID-19 emerged.
After examining all available intelligence reporting and other information, though, the IC
remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19. All agencies assess that two hypotheses
are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident.
Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence
that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to
an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus—a virus that probably would be
more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2. These analysts give weight to China’s
officials’ lack of foreknowledge, the numerous vectors for natural exposure, and other
factors.
One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with
SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably
involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of
Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on
coronaviruses.
Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation
without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a
laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.
Variations in analytic views largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh
intelligence reporting and scientific publications, and intelligence and scientific gaps.
The IC judges they will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of
COVID-19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial
natural contact with an animal or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling SARS-
CoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before COVID-19 emerged.
